At the least, this tells me what we all ought to remember at election time: It is far easier to run for office that to run the office once you’ve won.
CNN Poll: Was Bush better president than Obama? – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Friday, October 08, 2010
Sunday, July 26, 2009
A Bad Economy, Complex Problems, Plummeting Polls
President Bush only had high numbers when the nation was rallying after attack. President Obama has managed to get less than six months into his first term before his numbers dropped below fifty percent. I wonder if a President will ever again have high approval for more than a fraction of his term? Why doesn’t anyone care that Congress has ratings far lower than either President? Can anyone govern in the polarized polling environment today? How is anyone supposed to lead when difficult responses to no-win situations are called for? It doesn’t matter all that much what the response is, there will soon be polls showing that most of us don’t like it. I can see why kings and emperors often justified themselves as having only one seal of approval- the Divine approval. Having to lead our society in this time with polls thrice a day and hoards parsing every word to catch one in a faux pas…man, who would WANT to be President now?
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Sunday Prediction: Fascinating Endgame Looks to Be Drawing to a Close - Basic Blue is IN
Unless some big surprise jumps out at us tomorrow for a late Halloween trick, the polls in the last 36 hours indicate to me that the late surge by Senator McCain likely reached its high water mark on Thursday evening-Friday morning. With a number of polls reporting increasing leads by Obama since Friday, it appears that the election will go to Obama. My best guess at this point is that the lead is somewhere in the five-to-seven point range, and with up to thirty percent of voters already having voted, the lead is effectively a bit larger than that. Absent some real game-changer Sunday night or Monday morning it looks to be an Obama victory waiting to happen. Below are my current best guess estimates for the electoral college - both the most likely outcome as of today's poll data, and the best-case scenario for a McCain upset. You'll note the big change in the best-case scenario for a McCain upset since my last maps were posted. There is now pretty much only one way for him to win, and the results this weekend have him losing ground in several key states. No doubt the Libby Dole debacle wasn't music to McCain's ears - it was drag he didn't need.
McCain Best Case
Likely Outcome as of 11/2/2008
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Obama Appears to be Consolidating the Lead
After seeing a number of polls move closer recently, including the Zogby single-day polling which had McCain actually leading, the single-day and trend polls today look to be telling a different story. For the first time, the Gallup extended and traditional polls are indicating a similar margin - twelve points for Senator Obama. The Gallup traditional was one of the first polls to set tongues wagging when it put Senator McCain within two percent of Obama last week. Rasmussen continues to have Obama over fifty-one percent and today's Zogby poll, which puts Obama up five plus percent, with most of the other polls which reported trends today showing the race at least five percent apart.
We have been speculating a great deal about how the late-breaking independent voters would move. Would they ultimately be comfortable with Senator Obama, or would tax and terror concerns steer them toward the more experienced man? Of course, we still won't know the answer for three or so days, but the sudden widening of the polls which had been showing a McCain surge may in fact be our early warning that independents are indeed choosing Obama. In fact, since the Thursday version of Rasmussen, the Wednesday Gallup traditional and the Friday Zogby single-day and Opinion Dynamics polls were released, each subsequent poll has trended down for McCain. Is November 1 the day the late breakers began to reach their tipping point and found themselves tipping toward Senator Obama? Time will tell, and certainly many of the underlying possibilities discussed over the past few days in this blog are still possible factors. But as of today, I don't see any data that suggests anything other than this: Obama widened his poll lead today. McCain lost ground. His brief foray above 45% - which has been nearly a hard ceiling for him - ended with the Zogby single-day results, and in combination with a gentle uptick by Obama the race seems now to be contested in the 5-10% Obama lead range. That's probably too large a number for McCain to overtake - especially in light of the number of early voters. All of the interesting possibilities and trends below the candidate preference line are really only interesting if the race is at four percent or less. Five at the outside. Upsets have happened even when the leader went into the last weekend with an eight point lead. But an eight-point lead in 1980 probably translates to a four or five point lead today, with instant information, many more polls and as many as a quarter of voters casting early ballots.
We'll see what the numbers look like tomorrow, but if I were an accountant tonight, I'd advise McCain to return some of that Red Bull I suggested last night. Chances are he'll be wanting some warm milk instead. Stay tuned tomorrow to see if we must remake our impressions yet again!
Obama's New Attack on Those Who Don't Want Higher Taxes: ‘Selfishness’
From the ABC News blog:
Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper
October 31, 2008 10:58 AM
On the stump this week, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pushed back against Sen. John McCain's description of his tax policies.
"The reason that we want to do this, change our tax code, is not because I have anything against the rich," Obama said in Sarasota, Fla., yesterday. "I love rich people! I want all of you to be rich. Go for it. That’s the American dream, that’s the American way, that’s terrific.
"The point is, though, that -- and it’s not just charity, it’s not just that I want to help the middle class and working people who are trying to get in the middle class -- it’s that when we actually make sure that everybody’s got a shot – when young people can all go to college, when everybody’s got decent health care, when everybody’s got a little more money at the end of the month – then guess what? Everybody starts spending that money, they decide maybe I can afford a new car, maybe I can afford a computer for my child. They can buy the products and services that businesses are selling and everybody is better off. All boats rise. That’s what happened in the 1990s, that’s what we need to restore. And that’s what I’m gonna do as president of the United States of America.
"John McCain and Sarah Palin they call this socialistic," Obama continued. "You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness."
It's unclear if this was a nod to the Ayn Rand book "The Virtue of Selfishness," with all that the invocation of Rand implies.
It would seem to be, given the themes of Rand's work, what happens when independent achievers are demonized.
Which would fit with this description of those who want to keep their hard-earned tax dollars as "selfish."
Atlas may not be shrugging, but Obama is.
Friday, October 31, 2008
ZOGBY: McCain leads in Single Day Poll 48-47
If you have been watching the polls, there are a group of them that have shown McCain advancing, sometimes within the margin of error. I have postulated that if the trend continued as it had been over the past week we might begin to see McCain leading in some polls by the weekend.
Over the three day period ending on Halloween, the Obama lead is unchanged from our report yesterday. But looking at just the polling responses for one day, today, Senator McCain has actually moved ahead of Senator Obama by one percentage point. This is within the margin of error but is significant nonetheless simply because it shows McCain with a lead. I refer you to Obama's rather terse interaction with reporters today and his exhortations with particular vehemence to campaign workers not to let up at all as telling hints about the impression the polls are giving him.
Earlier today, Dick Morris was heard to say that he doesn't believe there are many undecided voters left at all. Instead, he said, there are a number of voters who are not sold, or perhaps don't like Obama as a candidate, and will end up voting for McCain but simply don't want to tell anyone. If you think about the twenty or so percent of people who might vote for Bush if he were eligible for a third term, how vocal are they about their support? It does seem to have some ring of truth that these are stealth supporters. And in places where supporting McCain is viewed as supporting Bush, I can see some people choosing to 'go with the flow' with pollsters but voting privately as they really feel. Add to that the possibility of some level of Bradley effect - where people don't want to appear racist - and perhaps some of the poll results can be explained. On the other hand, internal numbers show McCain making huge gains with blue collar families, white Catholics and even among the 21-30 age group. Obama's lead has shrunk in half among independents since last week. So, there are many possible causes for the McCain surge in the polls - assuming you're not just reading the New York Times poll and discounting the 90% of polls that show the race getting closer.
The way I see it, the underlying numbers show a close race getting closer. The candidate preference numbers show a close race - whether it is a five point lead for Obama or even a 1 point McCain advantage. The murkiness of several drivers of voter opinion in this particular election make reading the tea leaves more difficult than usual, but there is no doubt in my mind right now that the one thing we can tell from the leaves we see is that the race is very close - closer than many will allow themselves to believe. Close enough that one candidate can't stop mentioning the polls and one can't stop telling supporters that the polls don't matter but work hard and don't let up. For me, this is perhaps the most telling clue to what the polls are really predicting: the way the two candidates are talking about them.
Poll Volatility and Undecided Voters: More Uncommitted Voters than Usual?
Why is there so much disparity between the polls this year? Some have sought to explain it with methodology, and I believe that to be a big part of the reason. What else could be driving as much as ten points difference from one poll to another? There has been some discussion between various pollsters that the financial crisis may have delayed many people in making a firm choice in the race for president. The proportion of undecided voters has remained fairly steady over the past few weeks, yet the numbers for each candidate has moved up and down by fairly large numbers. Some have said that there is a larger pool than normal of voters that are leaning and express a preference, but are not firmly committed to a candidate. In this scenario, perhaps seven or eight percent of voters will reach their conclusion over the weekend and Monday. If this means that as many as six percent will decide over the weekend, and possibly two or three percent of each candidate's supporters may re-evaluate their choice, then the curve of potential outcomes can include a McCain victory as well as a ten point Obama win.
Race Widens in Obama's Favor?
The race for President has been tightening according to several polls including Mason Dixon, IBD, Opinion Dynamics and especially the Gallup Traditional poll. This morning's reports, however, seem to suggest that Senator Barack Obama may be seeing some breathing room opening between himself and Senator McCain. Several of the polls that had the candidates between three and four points have moved to five and six point gaps, with the Gallup Traditional now an eight point lead for Obama. Though the local polls in a number of the most contested states show McCain leading or tied, this new move by Obama may not yet be reflected in them.
Though all of the aspects of the race discussed in previous posts may be factors (and there is no way to know how much of a factor any or all of them may be), the likelihood that any or a combination of them could produce an upset win for McCain will reduce dramatically if the polls widen from four or five percent. This is especially true in terms of early voting, as the nearly thirty percent of voters who will vote prior to November 4 reduce the likelihood of a late change of mind among independents. Below is the trend line from Gallup Traditional.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania and Ohio Tied
After trailing by as many as fifteen points in Pennsylvania two weeks ago, Senator John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama, according to a new Mason Dixon poll. A similar trend is occurring in Ohio where the Dixon poll shows McCain with a lead of one percent just two weeks removed from a double digit deficit. Dixon has Florida at 1 percent for McCain, Indiana at 5 percent for McCain, Missouri for McCain by one percent, Virginia with a two percent Obama lead. Virtually every state McCain MUST win to have any chance to win the electoral college has moved within the margin of error, according to news reports of Dixon polling.
The change in this race over the past two or three weeks is really amazing. The finish should be fascinating. When McCain says he plans to be up all night November 4th, I am beginning to think he needs to stock up on Red Bull.
Presidential Race Continues to Narrow
Major polls updated today continue to show the lead of Senator Barack Obama shrinking, with Rasmussen, IBD and Opinion Dynamics all showing the lead at just three percent. Gallup traditional, Zogby and Ipsos all have the race at five percent for Obama.
Opinion Dynamics Poll:
Obama has lost two-thirds of his lead over McCain in just the last week in the poll released today, at Obama 47 McCain 44 (3%) .
Among the key issues underlying the top line voter choice percentages there are some interesting items:
- In the area of trust on economy, Senator McCain has cut Obama's lead in half, from 15% to 8% (Rasmussen shows McCain actually leading Obama this week in this category by 48-47%).
- “Who would respond better to being “tested” by foreign governments or terrorists in the first six months of his presidency?" - McCain 52-39 (this includes independents 53-37%) McCain is also viewed as better at managing the war on terror (+14%) and Iraq (+7%).
- Both candidates are holding support by voters who identify themselves as Democrat or Republican, and both groups still showing greater motivation to vote, as evidenced by willingness to wait "as long as it takes" to vote.
- Recent movement shows Obama losing almost 50% of the independent voter support he enjoyed last week (he still leads by 5% in this group, down from 9.5% last week).
- McCain has picked up dramatic support from blue collar and white Catholic voters as well – Obama lead McCain by 11% among white Catholics last week; this week they split the group evenly - 46% apiece.
- Almost all voters -- 78 percent -- think McCain has the right experience to be president. That number includes a 64 percent majority of Democrats. Significantly fewer voters -- 49 percent -- think Obama has the right experience for the Oval Office (48 percent say he doesn't).
- An interesting question asked: "If you had to make the toughest decision of your life, would you rather get advice from": Obama 43% (unchanged) McCain 44% (up ten percent from last week). This is the first time McCain has lead in this category since the Republican convention.
- In the battle to ‘claim the middle ground in the election', McCain is viewed as slightly more moderate than Obama – 43% say Obama’s policies are “too liberal”, 38% say McCain is “too conservative”. This may partially account for McCain’s gains among independents this past week.
All of these items indicate that the race continues to get closer, though as the earlier post (Is a McCain Electoral Path Still Possible?) below indicates, it will still take a perfect storm for McCain to win enough votes in the electoral college. It appears that the Obama campaign is playing rope-a-dope, hoping that the lead holds. I think it is probably a smart percentage play, avoiding the potential big mistake, because the list of states McCain must win is so long.
PS-Notice that Senator Biden is nowhere to be seen the last few days? He apparently has a cold and isn't up to interviews...if I were playing the rope-a-dope strategy he wouldn't be my first pick. It just isn't his style.
Is A McCain Electoral Path Still Possible (Updated)?
This is the map as it stands now, shows Barack Obama with a heavy margin in the electoral college. To win, McCain must capture all current toss-up states (MT, ND, MO, GA and FL) as well as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. McCain trails in all but MT and ND at this time, though he has gained ground significantly over the past two weeks and in Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina may be leading by week end.
| Obama/Biden 311 | McCain/Palin 142 |
| 259 Solid 52 Leaning | 127 Solid 15 Leaning |
(85 Toss Up)
This map shows the scenario described above. It requires McCain to capture all six states where the race is within 2-3% currently, as well as capturing Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana, where the polls show him trailing by 4-8%. However, if the trends of the past two weeks were to continue it would put the toss-ups into McCain likely tally and Missouri, Ohio and Indiana within one to two percent. Theses thin margins could be sufficient if the late undecided voters break unusually heavily for McCain, and if any of the possible drag factors we've discussed previously materialize.
Obama/Biden 264 McCain/Palin 274
This is the only path I can still envision as having a real chance to occur, and even then everything must go McCain's way. Still, it is more likely than I would have thought just judging by the number of states that will have to change hands. Why? For this to happen, no reversal is required - all that is required is for the current trend in these states over the last two weeks to continue, in combination with any one additional Obama drag effects we've discussed here.
Oh, is that all? It is a long shot (though maybe not quite so long as it appears at first glance) indeed, but if it does happen, or nearly so, we may be waiting until Wednesday or even Thursday to call the race.
Whoever wins, I have a cigar ready to celebrate the end of the campaign and the lies, distortions, name-calling and neighbor tension that has seemed to overtop the levies of civil society in especially large waves this year. If you don't see what I mean, refer to the Washington race for Governor. One candidate has all but claimed the other supports child molesters, and the other has likened his opponent to a smelly diaper. Really.
UPDATE:
As of this morning, you'll see that Karl Rove has updated his version of the electoral map including the latest poll split in each state.
The Obama campaign is keeping its' polling close to the vest - presumably because the race is getting closer and therefore they wish to get attention off the poll trends. It makes sense from his standpoint, though I always chuckle when I hear surrogates and the candidate saying that polls are meaningless, or that they don't pay attention to polls, when that campaign has spent more than $22 million on polling in this election cycle. I usually try to spend a little less than that on meaningless things that I ignore...
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
McCain Chief Pollster: Too Close to Call
If you are interested in why the McCain campaign believes the race for President is tightening dramatically in the last week, read this blog entry: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/mccain_pollster_race_too_close_to_call/
Several of the trends we've discussed here are also included in the memo, and some very interesting additional details related to overpolling and late-breaking voters are discussed.
The Gallup likely voters poll has the race at two points, and McCain has significantly broken the 45% barrier that has been his high water mark for much of the campaign. Rasmussen has the race at three points this morning, with Zogby and IBD both at four.
Still, what must be said about all of this tightening is that McCain will have to win Ohio, and hold at least five other toss-up states. He still has to run the table, and so unless the trend toward a tighter race is very dramatic (say seven or eight points, like with Carter/Reagan), and very broad (affecting all the battleground states) then it is a very unlikely outcome for McCain to win the electoral college. Still, it is a very interesting race far later than history, an epically unpopular president, an excellent-campaigning Democratic opponent, a bad economy and an oddly put-together Republican ticket would have lead me to believe two months ago.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Electoral Map Shows McCain Must Sweep to Win
We've been looking at the poll trends, both nationally and in the key or battleground states. For all the interesting trends and underlying possibilities that could shape the last ten days of the campaign, there is one perspective that is perhaps the most predictive of the ultimate outcome, and that is the status of the electoral college. As of today's polls, McCain is over 110 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to be elected. Obama has about 35-40 more votes than are required. Now the voters may still shift, and do so dramatically - even a six or seven point shift is possible with the leading candidate under 50% - but as a practical matter this shift would have to be a perfect sweep for McCain to win the Presidency. That is to say that he would have to win all of the battleground states, and one or two currently leaning Obama. Obama, on the other hand, need only win one - Colorado or Florida or Virginia or...well, the point is that though it is still a possibility that McCain could win, and a likelihood that the race will be even closer than it is today, it is a very long shot that he could run the table. Bookmakers are estimating the probability at 83% that Obama will win, and it is this electoral college situation that makes an Obama victory seem so likely. Even if McCain comes from well back in the last ten days, and wins all but one of the states called battleground states, he'd still fall short of the required 270 electoral votes. In short, McCain must win every toss-up and battleground state. Now that, is a tall order. MB
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Is the 2008 Election Still Within Reach for McCain/Palin?
Whether the polls are nearer to three or seven nationally, the electoral map has been changing dramatically over the last month. Karl Rove regularly publishes maps with his call on the state polls and the electoral status. Below is the latest electoral college race according to Karl Rove:
I mentioned in an earlier post that the race seems to have some similarities to the 1980 election - one where the voters made up their mind over the last weekend that they were indeed comfortable with Ronald Reagan. It occurs to me that it may also be like the 1948 election, where Truman was trailing by seven points with one week remaining in the campaign, and on election day the voters ultimately decided they were not as comfortable with Dewey as with the experienced Truman.
Of course, many of these questions are driven by the perceptions underlying the overall preferences of voters for a candidate. In that next layer of poll data we learn more about why they are leaning and choosing as they are, and we see trends that make the race fluid. What we don't know is how high the tide will be on November 4, and in fact, which underlying trends will be lifted with whatever tide rises.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
More close polls and slanted news coverage?
More polls show a tightening race - Gallup Traditional shows Obama regaining 5 point lead
Today the AP-GfK released its latest poll. It shows John McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch, with Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, well within the margin of error. Just three weeks ago, this survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain.
The IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's lead is down to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain gained ground in the West and with independents, married women, as well as gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama added gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents. (IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season for the 2004 election.)
The latest Gallup Traditional Poll shows Obama stretching his lead back to 5 points from a recent low of 2.7%, while the Real Clear Politics average has moved back up to about 7% from a low of just over 5% on Monday.
It is clear that McCain made some gains in the period after the third debate, though it is less clear how much he has gained, and if the increase has already peaked. I still have some questions about how late-breaking voters will go - Obama is still running at just 52% 'ready to be President' compared to McCain's 80%, so it may be that late-breaking undecideds will ultimately decide that he is ready, or it may be that they won't reach that tipping point and will go for McCain based on his experience. It is one reason that you'll see Obama exhorting crowds to vote early in his current stump speech.
MEDIA Coverage Comparison - McCain stories overwhelmingly negative, according to Project for Excellence in Journalism study
The media coverage of the race for president has not so much cast Barack Obama in a favorable light as it has portrayed John McCain in a substantially negative one, according to a new study of the media since the two national political conventions ended.
Press treatment of Obama has been somewhat more positive than negative, but not markedly so.
But coverage of McCain has been heavily unfavorable—and has become more so over time. In the six weeks following the conventions through the final debate, unfavorable stories about McCain outweighed favorable ones by a factor of more than three to one—the most unfavorable of all four candidates—according to the study by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.
For Obama during this period, just over a third of the stories were clearly positive in tone (36%), while a similar number (35%) were neutral or mixed. A smaller number (29%) were negative.
For McCain, by comparison, nearly six in ten of the stories studied were decidedly negative in nature (57%), while fewer than two in ten (14%) were positive.
All of this makes me wonder if the media that seems to be favoring Obama in how he is reported are somehow tweaking the sense of fairness among viewers/readers with the overwhelmingly negative coverage?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Attack Politics Gone too Far
Whatever one thinks of Joe the Plumber's question to Senator Obama, the way he was treated afterward has got to send a small shiver up your spine. The guy asked a question about his family's financial future of a man running for president. It is a question many Americans would like to ask. And because he did this, he has been investigated in great detail. People have pulled his tax records, his property records, his voting and contributions records. Reporters have called his company, friends, even some customers for whom he has done work.
Think about it for a minute. Because a citizen asked a question of a candidate, he was fair game for reporters to investigate and background. It was suddenly 'news' to know whether he is a licensed plumber or simply works under the supervision of one (like many employees of plumbing companies do). I can only imagine that if he'd been divorced three times, or had a DUI or any other prurient life event had been part of his jacket we'd hear about them as well. Why?
A private citizen asked a question of a candidate. The question got videotaped, and then broadcast. The candidate used a phrase that stuck in the craws of many people, and the question became well-known. But by the third day after the question was asked, the question was no longer the news. The answer was no longer the news. By then, what was really important about the matter was Joe. Is he qualified to ask a question? Did he trick the candidate? Is he someone with nefarious intent? Does he wear boxers or briefs? Yes, the focus was very quickly removed from a substantive question and a meaningful answer to an inquest into the character of the citizen who had the temerity to ask it.
For the record, I don't see anything wrong with the question OR the answer. Government already 'spreads the wealth around' to a degree, and one key question before the voters is 'should government redistribute money from the wealthy to the poor' to a greater degree than at present. You see, the Obama campaign feared that phrase not because it misrepresented what Obama wants to do, but because it was artlessly phrased and might hurt him in the polls. McCain's campaign gleefully glommed onto it and announced that it makes Obama socialist. We ALREADY do this, folks. The question is not whether our society redistributes wealth. The question is how much, and how? And the fact that some guy that asked a perfectly meaningful and reasonable question came under attack from one side and was used as a prop by the other says as much as any other example about what is wrong with us in general and what is wrong with campaigns in particular.
I am saddened that we live now in a place where if I disagree with you on some matter, before long that disagreement is seen as justification to put my life and character on trial in the court of public opinion. What is disturbing isn't just this, though, it is that the character bashing is used to deflect and halt examination and discussion of the real issue raised, which in this case was should we take earnings from people making over a certain amount to give to people of low income in various ways? Rational human beings can make arguments and hold genuine beliefs from either side of that question. Instead, we attack the guy that asked it and go back to labeling and name-calling. The questioner becomes the story and the two sides of his question are lost in the new cliches shouted from the wings onto the electoral stage: "Socialist!" yells the right, while from the left come cries "tax breaks for the rich while the poor starve!". And news vans park in front of Joe's house and sift through his garbage.
Is there really anyone reading this that doesn't get why I am so sick of our politics and the direction public discourse is heading in America?
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Polls Show Tightening Race
Beginning just two days ago a trend began that seems to indicate that the gap between Barrack Obama and John McCain is shrinking. Zogby released the latest poll (October 19), with Obama leading McCain by just 2.7% - within the 2.9 % margin of error. This follows the Gallup traditional voters poll, which was the first to show this recent trend.
In the battleground states, the most recent poll shows Obama's lead shrinking by one-fifth (down 1% from 5% to 4%) since last week, and that the bulk of the uptick for McCain is coming from the still-undecided voters. The total undecided voter group dropped by 1%, about the gain McCain is posting.
The Rasmussen poll shows Obama holding a fairly steady five point lead, and that while most Americans feel that tax cuts are the most important thing that can be done to help the economy, many also feel that raising taxes on 'the rich' is not a bad idea.
So, if the race ended today? The oddsmakers line has Obama at 83% probability of winning. My questions:
Will McCain continue to trend upward?
Will undecided voters feel comfortable with what they know of Senator Obama as they near the election day and reach their 'tipping point'?
Will there be any Bradley effect?
For someone very tired of the coarse, abrasive and intentionally misleading campaign, looking at the many elements of public opinion and perspective is a welcome refuge from the mudslinging.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Closer than it Seemed?
The Gallup likely voter poll for today shows that likely voters are breaking toward McCain as the election nears. Today's poll of likely voters shows Obama leading McCain 49 to 47 - a four point improvement for McCain since Tuesday and within the margin of error for the poll.
Readers of this blog will recall that I have been wondering if this race would close up as the election neared and if undecided voters would ultimately decide they feel comfortable with Senator Obama. It will be interesting to see if Zogby, Rasmussen end up with a similar McCain bounce this week, and what kind of coverage the poll gets in the media. Obama supporters have only to recall the lost momentum late in the primary campaign as Hillary Clinton came back from the dead and Obama was able to hold the nomination only because he'd built such a margin early on.
As I speculated in an earlier post: is his lead large enough, and are people 'sold' on this candidate? It would give me concern if my candidate had a history of soft-polling to be within four or five points heading into the election weekend. Add to that the other issues that may or may not be real issues in the voting booth, and I would think the Obama campaign must be quietly nervous behind closed doors.
Still, it is just one poll right now, so we'll have to keep a weather eye for Zogby and Rassmussen, et al, over the next few days.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Zogby Poll: No Candidate with a Clear Advantage
Zogby International polls have been very successful in predicting the actual outcome of elections, and the data this year indicates that the 2008 Presidential Election may well be decided on the last weekend before the election. He likens this year to 1980 when the race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan was close until the final weekend, when large numbers of voters broke for Reagan. They apparently became comfortable with him when it came time to actually make a choice - the tipping point. It will be interesting to see if the various poll-related problems with each candidate play out as real factors in this election: For McCain, will the age question tip undecided and independent voters to Obama? Will negative ads about Obama's past associates backfire? Will his war posture ultimately be the electoral burden it was believed to be at the outset of the campaign? For Obama, will he continue a pattern of soft-polling (some people who tell pollsters that they will vote for Obama do not in fact vote for him)? Will predictions made by Stanford researchers that a meaningful percentage of voters (including Democrats) refuse to vote for an African American candidate? Obama has high numbers in the surveys asking if he is unqualified - it has stayed at about 48%, the highest of any candidate since Dukakis. Will a late-breaking electorate ultimately decide he IS qualified, or will this high level of uncertainty ultimately translate to a shift to McCain at the last minute?
Leaving aside the people yelling at each other and calling each other liars, terrorists, mental patients on television, radio and the stump, there is a clear difference in approach in this election. Obama will doubtlessly move left if elected (as did Bill Clinton), and McCain will be faced with an opposition Congress. Both men (regardless of what they tell us), will increase the huge budget deficits, and depending on your beliefs about tax increases they will have different effects on the economy. But, as usual, the ideologues and interest groups are choosing the lowest road available. The name-calling has reached a fever-pitch especially early this year. And my question is this: both men have said they will change Washington. And maybe both really mean to do so. But how can they change Washington when they cannot even change the campaign? Partisan rancor and fighting has taken over the campaign, as usual and maybe worse than usual, so how can either one be expected to really change how government works?
I can't make myself listen to much from the pundits, candidates and campaigns this year, once again. It is rude behavior, and all of it shows a lack of character all around. About the only way I can stomach the campaign is to read the various fact-checking resources to see what the proposals made will really result in, according to independent researchers, and to look at the polls in detail in the manner of an avid baseball fan looking at statistics.
Zogby has the race at 48-44 Obama today, with a margin of +/- 2.9%. Both candidates are holding their partisans (Obama 86% of Democrats and McCain 87% of Republicans), and at the moment Obama is winning the battle for independents (49% to 39%). If John Zogby is right and the election breaks big on the last weekend, it will be interesting to see if people are ultimately able to feel comfortable with Obama, if the racial issue is a factor, and if soft-polling is a factor. It will also be interesting to see if the economic crisis is still the dominant issue, and if McCain, a member of the President's party and therefore traditionally hurt by a bad economy, gets harmed by it. The one wild-card was mentioned today by a Democratic talking head, who said that he feels that unless there is a terrorist attack Obama will win going away.
There are a lot of ingredients in this year's election stew, and it will be interesting to see how they all come together to affect the outcome. Either way, I will be glad not to have to hear people hating on each other publicly, loudly and without inhibition. Just think what we'd say to our kids if they interacted together at school the way people in public act about elections. It feels like the approved method of campaigning has become slander, smear and shout the bastard down. And the electorate so deeply divided that I know people who have stopped being friends because they could not be friends with someone who held 'those' political views. Can't we go back to the good advice of polite society - never discuss politics and religion? Or the advice of Thumper's mother: "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all"? One man that was able to work with everyone in the Senate was Alan Simpson, who said, "If you have integrity, nothing else matters. If you don't have integrity, nothing else matters."
I can live with either candidate, no matter how different their approach, as long as they have integrity. I think that one approach may be better than another for most circumstances, (Jimmy Carter had integrity and also had a tough time governing, in my opinion), but knowing that the candidate has integrity would mean a great deal to the public. Now I am not saying that either man lacks personal integrity. But how much of it do they show with the campaigns they run?
Now I know that my opinion is just my opinion, and I know that the only reason you are reading it now is that anyone can read damn near anything on the Internet in the Information Age. Once upon a time, there was an expectation that reading someone's opinion suggested that it was an informed and perhaps an expert opinion. Now, it just implies an Internet connection. The quote: "The irony of the information age is that it has given new respectability to uninformed opinion." by John Lawton applies here. I wouldn't want anyone to think that I hold my own views in exception to this sentiment, I don't. But, that said, I find it to be a satisfying exercise to be able to jot my thoughts, knowing that whether or not anyone actually reads them, someone might.
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Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.
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