Sunday, November 02, 2008

Sunday Prediction: Fascinating Endgame Looks to Be Drawing to a Close - Basic Blue is IN

Unless some big surprise jumps out at us tomorrow for a late Halloween trick, the polls in the last 36 hours indicate to me that the late surge by Senator McCain likely reached its high water mark on Thursday evening-Friday morning.  With a number of polls reporting increasing leads by Obama since Friday, it appears that the election will go to Obama.  My best guess at this point is that the lead is somewhere in the five-to-seven point range, and with up to thirty percent of voters already having voted, the lead is effectively a bit larger than that.  Absent some real game-changer Sunday night or Monday morning it looks to be an Obama victory waiting to happen.  Below are my current best guess estimates for the electoral college - both the most likely outcome as of today's poll data, and the best-case scenario for a McCain upset.  You'll note the big change in the best-case scenario for a McCain upset since my last maps were posted.  There is now pretty much only one way for him to win, and the results this weekend have him losing ground in several key states.  No doubt the Libby Dole debacle wasn't music to McCain's ears - it was drag he didn't need. 

McCain Best Case

MB McCain Best Case1

Likely Outcome as of 11/2/2008

Most Likely1


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Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
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