Friday, July 03, 2009

Moral Courage?

Okay, so I realize that using the phrase ”moral courage” to describe the act of a person giving the finger to another does not at first blush seem to be a very clever or deep example of moral courage.  I invite you to look again. 

Balls of Steel

Am I right or am I right?  From Punditkitchen.com

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Echoes of Past Complaints

One of the many issues over which the Bush Administration was criticized heavily (and probably rightly so) for was suppressing information and opinions in the EPA whish disagreed with the administration’s policy.  That’s okay in many management settings, but I hate to see it when what is being curtailed is not merely points of view in conflict with chosen policy, but scientific discussion and debate.  In the case of the Bush Administration it seems clear that data which did  not support the administration's skepticism of global warming and human-based causes of warming.  Now it seems that the Obama Administration is doing the same thing, albeit the data being suppressed is in conflict with the administration’s view that earth is warming and human activity is driving it.  At the EPA, a 38 year veteran researcher concluded that the earth is probably not warming and may actually be cooling.  He also wrote that it is probably not necessary to regulate carbon dioxide emissions at this point.  He actually sees signs that earth is cooling recently and may be back to mid-20th century levels.  You can read more about the censoring of his report and the details of its’ content here:  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10274412-38.html

If it is bad for one administration to suppress research that opposes its’ policies, it is bad for all administrations to do so.  Far better to consider and reply to such research than just to try and quash it – which seldom works anyway.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

FINALLY! M’s Washburn Gets a Little Help from His Friends

Jarrod Washburn has worked hard over the last offseason to perfect his changeup, and the results have been impressive.  He is throwing it far more often (sometimes as much as 25% of his pitch-count), and with better location (down) and movement than ever before.  His breaking ball is moving more and his fastball is a couple miles per hour faster than last year, and his control is much improved.  This translates into a drop of over 1 run per nine innings in ERA, dramatically fewer walks and homeruns given up dropping in half over last season. 

Washburn has always been a ‘hard-luck’ pitcher – a guy for which the team scores runs rarely.  Numerous times in his career he has been a league leader in fewest runs scored by his team – last year he was near the bottom all year with the M’s scoring less than 3 runs on average.  He also has routinely lead his team in save opportunities blown – that is to say, when he leaves the game with the lead his bullpen gives up the lead and the game more often for him than any other starter.  In fact, he lead the league last year with 7 blown leads.  He also has a very high number of 1-0 and 2-1 losses last season and this season.  Last year Washburn had the lowest run support in the American League and tied for the highest number of blown saves (7) in the MLB.

Hard luck?  The hardest.  in every way that a guy can get poor support from his teammates, Washburn has been the unhappy recipient of such poor support.  Poor hitting,scoring few runs, the bullpen blowing saves…Washburn has been snake bit in each way by his Mariners teammates. 

So, it was nice today to see the M’s jump all over San Diego pitching for 9 runs, beginning right away with Ichiro’s solo shot to lead off the game, followed by Rob Johnson’s two-out, three-run double scoring Beltre, Sweeney and Gutierrez.  Washburn often doesn’t see the team score 4 runs in a game he starts, let alone the first inning.  And, it doesn’t hurt his feelings to be pitching so well in a contract season, nor does it hurt the M’s feelings to see his value increase as the trade season heats up.

Box score for SD v. M's (June 25) - SD 3, M's 9

Friday, May 15, 2009

Restructuring in a Tough Economy

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Tracking the Swine Flu

I have to admit that it really frosts me when people are flippant about the possibility of pandemic flu.  As I see it, either we are very fortunate and the concern raised by a new strain is not borne out and the disease does not become deadly, or hundreds of thousands – even millions die. 

I hear people calling ‘hype’ and scoffing all around us.  Why?  Because people just don’t know the pattern that these pandemics follow.  They don’t always become deadly, but there is no way to know in advance which ones will do so.  There is a pattern that they follow, and very often when the strain emerges it is not deadly.  But after the first season, when the virus mutates again, it can then become a killer.  So, we hear people say “It's all hype”, until the secondary mutations happen and the new strain emerges in more virulent form and kill tens of millions.  And then of course, if we don't have stockpiles and research in hand, we will immediately have people claiming that the government's lack of preparation and stockpiling was itself a conspiracy and/or pure negligence.

For at least the past 400 years, epidemics resembling influenza have been recorded.  In  the twentieth century alone, we have seen  the 1918 “Spanish Flu” epidemic (20 million dead),  the 1957 or 1968 influenza outbreaks 1 million dead each, and there have been others –not to mention major epidemics in 1580, 1781, 1831.


Simply put, we hear people scoff and laugh at what they see as hype, but it is only hype until that cycle where the disease happens to become virulent.  Why do people experience fear? Why do the CDC, WHO, etc., raise awareness, and why does the media join in?  Plainly put, if this new strain happens to be (or become over the summer) one that kills half the people who contract it, then it will be the biggest story, the biggest disaster, the most devastating economic blow...well, short of a nuclear event. The health authorities, the media, the planners cannot know immediately what the current form of the H1N1, or the next mutation will do, and simple common sense says 'take precautions until we have information'.   President Ford has been scoffed at and called an idiot because he stockpiled, immunized and alerted the public about a strain that proved not to be deadly.  Had it been as deadly as the 1918 flu Ford might have been called a hero for preparing as best he could. It is not intellectually honest to evaluate someone's actions only by how a factor they cannot know (is this one deadly?) later plays out.

This site is great for tracking the virus.  I hope this latest new virus does not use the summer in animal reserve hosts to mutate yet again, and perhaps to become a deadly pandemic.  If so, the least sad thing about it will be to look back at all the things written and said now about ‘hype’.  The tables will be turned then, and the consequences terrible.  But whether it is this virus, or another in the future, another deadly event is overdue, and very likely it will be greeted by many chanting ‘hype’.

http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

First Washington State Influenza Death

Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay