Friday, October 31, 2008

Race Widens in Obama's Favor?

The race for President has been tightening according to several polls including Mason Dixon, IBD, Opinion Dynamics and especially the Gallup Traditional poll.  This morning's reports, however, seem to suggest that Senator Barack Obama may be seeing some breathing room opening between himself and Senator McCain.  Several of the polls that had the candidates between three and four points have moved to five and six point gaps, with the Gallup Traditional now an eight point lead for Obama.  Though the local polls in a number of the most contested states show McCain leading or tied, this new move by Obama may not yet be reflected in them. 

Though all of the aspects of the race discussed in previous posts may be factors (and there is no way to know how much of a factor any or all of them may be), the likelihood that any or a combination of them could produce an upset win for McCain will reduce dramatically if the polls widen from four or five percent.  This is especially true in terms of early voting, as the nearly thirty percent of voters who will vote prior to November 4 reduce the likelihood of a late change of mind among independents.  Below is the trend line from Gallup Traditional.


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Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
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