Wednesday, October 29, 2008

McCain Chief Pollster: Too Close to Call

If you are interested in why the McCain campaign believes the race for President is tightening dramatically in the last week, read this blog entry:

Several of the trends we've discussed here are also included in the memo, and some very interesting additional details related to overpolling and late-breaking voters are discussed.

The Gallup likely voters poll has the race at two points, and McCain has significantly broken the 45% barrier that has been his high water mark for much of the campaign.  Rasmussen has the race at three points this morning, with Zogby and IBD both at four.

Still, what must be said about all of this tightening is that McCain will have to win Ohio, and hold at least five other toss-up states.  He still has to run the table, and so unless the trend toward a tighter race is very dramatic (say seven or eight points, like with Carter/Reagan), and very broad (affecting all the battleground states) then it is a very unlikely outcome for McCain to win the electoral college.    Still, it is a very interesting race far later than history, an epically unpopular president, an excellent-campaigning Democratic opponent, a bad economy and an oddly put-together Republican ticket would have lead me to believe two months ago. 

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Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
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