Thursday, October 30, 2008

Is A McCain Electoral Path Still Possible (Updated)?

This is the map as it stands now, shows Barack Obama with a heavy margin in the electoral college.  To win, McCain must capture all current toss-up states (MT, ND, MO, GA and FL) as well as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  McCain trails in all but MT and ND at this time, though he has gained ground significantly over the past two weeks and in Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina may be leading by week end.

    Obama/Biden 311

    McCain/Palin 142

    259 Solid    52 Leaning

    127 Solid     15 Leaning

                                     (85 Toss Up)

cuurent elecoral1

This map shows the scenario described above.  It requires McCain to capture all six states where the race is within 2-3%  currently, as well as capturing Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana, where the polls show him trailing by 4-8%.  However, if the trends of the past two weeks were to continue it would put the toss-ups into McCain likely tally and Missouri, Ohio and Indiana within one to two percent.  Theses thin margins could be sufficient if the late undecided voters break unusually heavily for McCain, and if any of the possible drag factors we've discussed previously materialize. 

Obama/Biden 264                      McCain/Palin 274

mccain path1

This is the only path I can still envision as having a real chance to occur, and even then everything must go McCain's way.  Still, it is more likely than I would have thought just judging by the number of states that will have to change hands.  Why?  For this to happen, no reversal is required - all that is required is for the current trend in these states over the last two weeks to continue, in combination with any one additional Obama drag effects we've discussed here. 

Oh, is that all?  It is a long shot (though maybe not quite so long as it appears at first glance) indeed, but if it does happen, or nearly so, we may be waiting until Wednesday or even Thursday to call the race. 

Whoever wins, I have a cigar ready to celebrate the end of the campaign and the lies, distortions, name-calling and neighbor tension that has seemed to overtop the levies of civil society in especially large waves this year.  If you don't see what I mean, refer to the Washington race for Governor.  One candidate has all but claimed the other supports child molesters, and the other has likened his opponent to a smelly diaper.  Really. 


As of this morning, you'll see that Karl Rove has updated his version of the electoral map including the latest poll split in each state. 

Rove 1030081 

The Obama campaign is keeping its' polling close to the vest - presumably because the race is getting closer and therefore they wish to get attention off the poll trends.  It makes sense from his standpoint, though I always chuckle when I hear surrogates and the candidate saying that polls are meaningless, or that they don't pay attention to polls, when that campaign has spent more than $22 million on polling in this election cycle.  I usually try to spend a little less than that on meaningless things that I ignore...

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