Thursday, October 23, 2008

Is the 2008 Election Still Within Reach for McCain/Palin?

Whether the polls are nearer to three or seven nationally, the electoral map has been changing dramatically over the last month.  Karl Rove regularly publishes maps with his call on the state polls and the electoral status.  Below is the latest electoral college race according to Karl Rove: 

Electoral Map

I mentioned in an earlier post that the race seems to have some similarities to the 1980 election - one where the voters made up their mind over the last weekend that they were indeed comfortable with Ronald Reagan.  It occurs to me that it may also be like the 1948 election, where Truman was trailing by seven points with one week remaining in the campaign, and on election day the voters ultimately decided they were not as comfortable with Dewey as with the experienced Truman. 

Of course, many of these questions are driven by the perceptions underlying the overall preferences of voters for a candidate.  In that next layer of poll data we learn more about why they are leaning and choosing as they are, and we see trends that make the race fluid.  What we don't know is how high the tide will be on November 4, and in fact, which underlying trends will be lifted with whatever tide rises.  

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Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
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