Friday, October 24, 2008

Electoral Map Shows McCain Must Sweep to Win

We've been looking at the poll trends, both nationally and in the key or battleground states.  For all the interesting trends and underlying possibilities that could shape the last ten days of the campaign, there is one perspective that is perhaps the most predictive of the ultimate outcome, and that is the status of the electoral college.  As of today's polls, McCain is over 110 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to be elected.  Obama has about 35-40 more votes than are required.  Now the voters may still shift, and do so dramatically - even a six or seven point shift is possible with the leading candidate under 50% - but as a practical matter this shift would have to be a perfect sweep for McCain to win the Presidency.  That is to say that he would have to win all of the battleground states, and one or two currently leaning Obama.  Obama, on the other hand, need only win one - Colorado or Florida or Virginia or...well, the point is that though it is still a possibility that McCain could win, and a likelihood that the race will be even closer than it is today, it is a very long shot that he could run the table.  Bookmakers are estimating the probability at 83% that Obama will win, and it is this electoral college situation that makes an Obama victory seem so likely.  Even if McCain comes from well back in the last ten days, and wins all but one of the states called battleground states, he'd still fall short of the required 270 electoral votes.  In short, McCain must win every toss-up and battleground state.  Now that, is a tall order.  MB

No comments:

Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.