Monday, November 10, 2008

Tommy (for Veterans Day)

Rudyard Kipling

I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer,
The publican 'e up an' sez, "We serve no red-coats here."
The girls be'ind the bar they laughed an' giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again an' to myself sez I:
O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, go away";
But it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play,
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
O it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play.
I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls,
But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls!
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, wait outside";
But it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide,
The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide,
O it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide.
Yes, makin' mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep
Is cheaper than them uniforms, an' they're starvation cheap;
An' hustlin' drunken soldiers when they're goin' large a bit
Is five times better business than paradin' in full kit.
Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, 'ow's yer soul?"
But it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll,
The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll,
O it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll.
We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints;
While it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, fall be'ind",
But it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind,
There's trouble in the wind, my boys, there's trouble in the wind,
O it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind.
You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all:
We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational.
Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face
The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace.
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck him out, the brute!"
But it's "Saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot;
An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please;
An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool -- you bet that Tommy sees!

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Leave Bill Alone!

Technorati Tags: ,

Buy you a Beer?

According to the Post Crescent in Appleton, Wisconsin, a 38-year-old man was cited for disorderly conduct in Fond du Lac, Wis., in September after he bought a beer for his sons at the county fair.  What's the big deal?  His sons are ages 2 and 4.  Officers could not cite the man for providing alcohol to minors because under Wisconsin law parents are exempt.  Fortunately, he was belligerent when speaking to the officers, so he was written up for swearing at police.

Technorati Tags: ,

Hottest Baby Food Flavor

Who Signed Off on THIS Sign?

fail owned pwned pictures

Technorati Tags: ,,

The Quality of Life is in the Quality of Living

"Dance like no one is watching. Sing like no one is listening. Love like you've never been hurt and live like it's heaven on Earth."
                                                                     —Mark Twain

Sometimes, if you are like me, it takes a simple thought, simply expressed to cut through the sheer speed of living.  With so many things to do, and so much information, and so much to buy and operate and watch and read and listen to, it can be pretty easy to be swept up in doing things, owning things and being active.  What's wrong with that?  Well, nothing in and of itself.  We must own some things to live, must we not?  We must do some things, and take action.  Still, it is all too easy anymore to find ones' life reduced to an endless high-speed string of activities, consumption and belongings.  We pursue the 'good life' in the form of these things, and at least some of the time we come unmoored to the simplest truths in life.  In having so much, and doing so much, and taking care of the many obligations that come from doing and having so much, we can easily begin to equate these things (consciously or otherwise) with happiness and success in life. 

When I see a sentence or two like this quote from Mark Twain, I am reminded that it is not the volume of belongings, or activities, or information that brings me satisfaction.  The happiest and most satisfying moments in my life revolve around people - family, friends.  They revolve around time - time to interact with them, share and make memories with them.  They depend on good health to enjoy, and and opportunity to be together. Often enough, the pace of life actually weakens the experience of family and friends - draws off some of the depth from the interaction.  We can become distracted and miss the moments that afford us so much of the satisfaction we find in life.  When we are distracted, self conscious, only partially engaged, though we are able to be together, we are not quite together. 

When we have the chance - time, health, companions - to really live, it is good advice indeed to value it.  And more, to be uninhibited about taking advantage of the moment and living it.  No matter how much we have, or how much we do, the quality of our lives derives far more from how we live our moments than where we live them, or what we own.  

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Scientific American: The Secret to Raising Smart Kids

Hint: Don't tell your kids that they are (smart). More than three decades of research shows that a focus on effort—not on intelligence or ability—is key to success in school and in life.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-secret-to-raising-smart-kids

Monday, November 03, 2008

Extreme Fire Hazard

hr

Good Advice on Tax Policy

"A nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to pull himself up by the handles." 

                                                        --Winston Churchill

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Sunday Prediction: Fascinating Endgame Looks to Be Drawing to a Close - Basic Blue is IN

Unless some big surprise jumps out at us tomorrow for a late Halloween trick, the polls in the last 36 hours indicate to me that the late surge by Senator McCain likely reached its high water mark on Thursday evening-Friday morning.  With a number of polls reporting increasing leads by Obama since Friday, it appears that the election will go to Obama.  My best guess at this point is that the lead is somewhere in the five-to-seven point range, and with up to thirty percent of voters already having voted, the lead is effectively a bit larger than that.  Absent some real game-changer Sunday night or Monday morning it looks to be an Obama victory waiting to happen.  Below are my current best guess estimates for the electoral college - both the most likely outcome as of today's poll data, and the best-case scenario for a McCain upset.  You'll note the big change in the best-case scenario for a McCain upset since my last maps were posted.  There is now pretty much only one way for him to win, and the results this weekend have him losing ground in several key states.  No doubt the Libby Dole debacle wasn't music to McCain's ears - it was drag he didn't need. 

McCain Best Case

MB McCain Best Case1

Likely Outcome as of 11/2/2008

Most Likely1

 

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Obama Appears to be Consolidating the Lead

After seeing a number of polls move closer recently, including the Zogby single-day polling which had McCain actually leading, the single-day and trend polls today look to be telling a different story.  For the first time, the Gallup extended and traditional polls are indicating a similar margin - twelve points for Senator Obama.  The Gallup traditional was one of the first polls to set tongues wagging when it put Senator McCain within two percent of Obama last week.  Rasmussen continues to have Obama over fifty-one percent and today's Zogby poll, which puts Obama up five plus percent, with most of the other polls which reported trends today showing the race at least five percent apart. 

We have been speculating a great deal about how the late-breaking independent voters would move.  Would they ultimately be comfortable with Senator Obama, or would tax and terror concerns steer them toward the more experienced man?  Of course, we still won't know the answer for three or so days, but the sudden widening of the polls which had been showing a McCain surge may in fact be our early warning that independents are indeed choosing Obama.  In fact, since the Thursday version of Rasmussen, the Wednesday Gallup traditional and the Friday Zogby single-day and Opinion Dynamics polls were released, each subsequent poll has trended down for McCain.  Is November 1 the day the late breakers began to reach their tipping point and found themselves tipping toward Senator Obama?  Time will tell, and certainly many of the underlying possibilities discussed over the past few days in this blog are still possible factors.  But as of today, I don't see any data that suggests anything other than this:  Obama widened his poll lead today.  McCain lost ground.  His brief foray above 45% - which has been nearly a hard ceiling for him - ended with the Zogby single-day results, and in combination with a gentle uptick by Obama the race seems now to be contested in the 5-10% Obama lead range.  That's probably too large a number for McCain to overtake - especially in light of the number of early voters.  All of the interesting possibilities and trends below the candidate preference line are really only interesting if the race is at four percent or less.  Five at the outside.  Upsets have happened even when the leader went into the last weekend with an eight point lead.  But an eight-point lead in 1980 probably translates to a four or five point lead today, with instant information, many more polls and as many as a quarter of voters casting early ballots. 

We'll see what the numbers look like tomorrow, but if I were an accountant tonight, I'd advise McCain to return some of that Red Bull I suggested last night.  Chances are he'll be wanting some warm milk instead.  Stay tuned tomorrow to see if we must remake our impressions yet again! 

Obama's New Attack on Those Who Don't Want Higher Taxes: ‘Selfishness’

From the ABC News blog:

Political Punch

Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper

October 31, 2008 10:58 AM

On the stump this week, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pushed back against Sen. John McCain's description of his tax policies.

"The reason that we want to do this, change our tax code, is not because I have anything against the rich," Obama said in Sarasota, Fla., yesterday. "I love rich people! I want all of you to be rich. Go for it. That’s the American dream, that’s the American way, that’s terrific.

"The point is, though, that -- and it’s not just charity, it’s not just that I want to help the middle class and working people who are trying to get in the middle class -- it’s that when we actually make sure that everybody’s got a shot – when young people can all go to college, when everybody’s got decent health care, when everybody’s got a little more money at the end of the month – then guess what? Everybody starts spending that money, they decide maybe I can afford a new car, maybe I can afford a computer for my child. They can buy the products and services that businesses are selling and everybody is better off. All boats rise. That’s what happened in the 1990s, that’s what we need to restore. And that’s what I’m gonna do as president of the United States of America.

"John McCain and Sarah Palin they call this socialistic," Obama continued. "You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness."

It's unclear if this was a nod to the Ayn Rand book "The Virtue of Selfishness," with all that the invocation of Rand implies

It would seem to be, given the themes of Rand's work, what happens when independent achievers are demonized.

Which would fit with this description of those who want to keep their hard-earned tax dollars as "selfish."

Atlas may not be shrugging, but Obama is.

Friday, October 31, 2008

ZOGBY: McCain leads in Single Day Poll 48-47

If you have been watching the polls, there are a group of them that have shown McCain advancing, sometimes within the margin of error.  I have postulated that if the trend continued as it had been over the past week we might begin to see McCain leading in some polls by the weekend. 

Over the three day period ending on Halloween, the Obama lead is unchanged from our report yesterday.  But looking at just the polling responses for one day, today, Senator McCain has actually moved ahead of Senator Obama by one percentage point.  This is within the margin of error but is significant nonetheless simply because it shows McCain with a lead.  I refer you to Obama's rather terse interaction with reporters today and his exhortations with particular vehemence to campaign workers not to let up at all as telling hints about the impression the polls are giving him. 

Earlier today, Dick Morris was heard to say that he doesn't believe there are many undecided voters left at all.  Instead, he said, there are a number of voters who are not sold, or perhaps don't like Obama as a candidate, and will end up voting for McCain but simply don't want to tell anyone.  If you think about the twenty or so percent of people who might vote for Bush if he were eligible for a third term, how vocal are they about their support?  It does seem to have some ring of truth that these are stealth supporters.  And in places where supporting McCain is viewed as supporting Bush, I can see some people choosing to 'go with the flow' with pollsters but voting privately as they really feel.  Add to that the possibility of some level of Bradley effect - where people don't want to appear racist - and perhaps some of the poll results can be explained.  On the other hand, internal numbers show McCain making huge gains with blue collar families, white Catholics and even among the 21-30 age group.  Obama's lead has shrunk in half among independents since last week.  So, there are many possible causes for the McCain surge in the polls - assuming you're not just reading the New York Times poll and discounting the 90% of polls that show the race getting closer.

The way I see it, the underlying numbers show a close race getting closer.  The candidate preference numbers show a close race - whether it is a five point lead for Obama or even a 1 point McCain advantage.  The murkiness of several drivers of voter opinion in this particular election make reading the tea leaves more difficult than usual, but there is no doubt in my mind right now that the one thing we can tell from the leaves we see is that the race is very close - closer than many will allow themselves to believe.  Close enough that one candidate can't stop mentioning the polls and one can't stop telling supporters that the polls don't matter but work hard and don't let up.  For me, this is perhaps the most telling clue to what the polls are really predicting: the way the two candidates are talking about them. 

Poll Volatility and Undecided Voters: More Uncommitted Voters than Usual?

Why is there so much disparity between the polls this year?  Some have sought to explain it with methodology, and I believe that to be a big part of the reason.  What else could be driving as much as ten points difference from one poll to another?  There has been some discussion between various pollsters that the financial crisis may have delayed many people in making a firm choice in the race for president.  The proportion of undecided voters has remained fairly steady over the past few weeks, yet the numbers for each candidate has moved up and down by fairly large numbers.  Some have said that there is a larger pool than normal of voters that are leaning and express a preference, but are not firmly committed to a candidate.    In this scenario, perhaps seven or eight percent of voters will reach their conclusion over the weekend and Monday.  If this means that as many as six percent will decide over the weekend, and possibly two or three percent of each candidate's supporters may re-evaluate their choice, then the curve of potential outcomes can include a McCain victory as well as a ten point Obama win.

Race Widens in Obama's Favor?

The race for President has been tightening according to several polls including Mason Dixon, IBD, Opinion Dynamics and especially the Gallup Traditional poll.  This morning's reports, however, seem to suggest that Senator Barack Obama may be seeing some breathing room opening between himself and Senator McCain.  Several of the polls that had the candidates between three and four points have moved to five and six point gaps, with the Gallup Traditional now an eight point lead for Obama.  Though the local polls in a number of the most contested states show McCain leading or tied, this new move by Obama may not yet be reflected in them. 

Though all of the aspects of the race discussed in previous posts may be factors (and there is no way to know how much of a factor any or all of them may be), the likelihood that any or a combination of them could produce an upset win for McCain will reduce dramatically if the polls widen from four or five percent.  This is especially true in terms of early voting, as the nearly thirty percent of voters who will vote prior to November 4 reduce the likelihood of a late change of mind among independents.  Below is the trend line from Gallup Traditional.

o0sb230kc0eufnd52mgfwq

Thursday, October 30, 2008

MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data

from Trendwatch

By Rick C. Hodgin

Thursday, October 30, 2008 09:55

Boston (MA) - Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature - and not the direct result of man's contributions.
Methane - powerful greenhouse gas
The two lead authors of a paper published in this week's Geophysical Review Letters, Matthew Rigby and Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, state that as a result of the increase, several million tons of new methane is present in the atmosphere.
Methane accounts for roughly one-fifth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, though its effect is 25x greater than that of carbon dioxide. Its impact on global warming comes from the reflection of the sun's light back to the Earth (like a greenhouse). Methane is typically broken down in the atmosphere by the free radical hydroxyl (OH), a naturally occuring process. This atmospheric cleanser has been shown to adjust itself up and down periodically, and is believed to account for the lack of increases in methane levels in Earth's atmosphere over the past ten years despite notable simultaneous increases by man.  Continue reading article here

Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania and Ohio Tied

After trailing by as many as fifteen points in Pennsylvania two weeks ago, Senator John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama, according to a new Mason Dixon poll.  A similar trend is occurring in Ohio where the Dixon poll shows McCain with a lead of one percent just two weeks removed from a double digit deficit.  Dixon has Florida at 1 percent for McCain, Indiana at 5 percent for McCain, Missouri for McCain by one percent, Virginia with a two percent Obama lead.  Virtually every state McCain MUST win to have any chance to win the electoral college has moved within the margin of error, according to news reports of Dixon polling. 

The change in this race over the past two or three weeks is really amazing.  The finish should be fascinating.  When McCain says he plans to be up all night November 4th, I am beginning to think he needs to stock up on Red Bull.

Presidential Race Continues to Narrow

Major polls updated today continue to show the lead of Senator Barack Obama shrinking, with Rasmussen, IBD and Opinion Dynamics all showing the lead at just three percent.  Gallup traditional, Zogby and Ipsos all have the race at five percent for Obama.

Opinion Dynamics Poll:

Obama has lost two-thirds of his lead over McCain in just the last week in the poll released today, at Obama 47 McCain 44 (3%) .

Among the key issues underlying the top line voter choice percentages there are some interesting items:

  • In the area of trust on economy, Senator McCain has cut Obama's lead in half, from 15% to 8% (Rasmussen shows McCain actually leading Obama this week in this category by 48-47%).
  • “Who would respond better to being “tested” by foreign governments or terrorists in the first six months of his presidency?" -  McCain 52-39 (this includes independents 53-37%) McCain is also viewed as better at managing the war on terror (+14%) and Iraq (+7%).
  • Both candidates are holding support by voters who identify themselves as Democrat or Republican, and both groups still showing greater motivation to vote, as evidenced by willingness to wait "as long as it takes" to vote.
  • Recent movement shows Obama losing almost 50% of the independent voter support he enjoyed last week (he still leads by 5% in this group, down from 9.5% last week).
  • McCain has picked up dramatic support from blue collar and white Catholic voters as well – Obama lead McCain by 11% among white Catholics last week; this week they split the group evenly - 46% apiece.
  • Almost all voters -- 78 percent -- think McCain has the right experience to be president. That number includes a 64 percent majority of Democrats. Significantly fewer voters -- 49 percent -- think Obama has the right experience for the Oval Office (48 percent say he doesn't).
  • An interesting question asked: "If you had to make the toughest decision of your life, would you rather get advice from":  Obama 43% (unchanged) McCain 44% (up ten percent from last week).  This is the first time McCain has lead in this category since the Republican convention.
  • In the battle to ‘claim the middle ground in the election', McCain is viewed as slightly more moderate than Obama – 43% say Obama’s policies are “too liberal”, 38% say McCain is “too conservative”. This may partially account for McCain’s gains among independents this past week.

All of these items indicate that the race continues to get closer, though as the earlier post (Is a McCain Electoral Path Still Possible?) below indicates, it will still take a perfect storm for McCain to win enough votes in the electoral college.  It appears that the Obama campaign is playing rope-a-dope, hoping that the lead holds.  I think it is probably a smart percentage play, avoiding the potential big mistake, because the list of states McCain must win is so long. 

PS-Notice that Senator Biden is nowhere to be seen the last few days?  He apparently has a cold and isn't up to interviews...if I were playing the rope-a-dope strategy he wouldn't be my first pick.  It just isn't his style.

AP FACT CHECK: Obama Ad Avoids Budget Realities

The Associated Press takes a look at the details in Obama's prime-time ad

AP

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was less than upfront in his half-hour commercial Wednesday night about the costs of his programs and the crushing budget pressures he would face in office.

Obama's...vow to save money by "eliminating programs that don't work" masks his failure throughout the campaign to specify what those programs are -- beyond the withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

A sampling of what voters heard in the ad, and what he didn't tell them:

THE SPIN: "That's why my health care plan includes improving information technology, requires coverage for preventive care and pre-existing conditions and lowers health care costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year."

THE FACTS: His plan does not lower premiums by $2,500, or any set amount. Obama hopes that by spending $50 billion over five years on electronic medical records and by improving access to proven disease management programs, among other steps, consumers will end up saving money. He uses an optimistic analysis to suggest cost reductions in national health care spending could amount to the equivalent of $2,500 for a family of four. Many economists are skeptical those savings can be achieved, but even if they are, it's not a certainty that every dollar would be passed on to consumers in the form of lower premiums.

THE SPIN: "I also believe every American has a right to affordable health care."

THE FACTS: That belief should not be confused with a guarantee of health coverage for all. He makes no such promise. Obama hinted as much in the ad when he said about the problem of the uninsured: "I want to start doing something about it." He would mandate coverage for children but not adults. His program is aimed at making insurance more affordable by offering the choice of government-subsidized coverage similar to that in a plan for federal employees and other steps, including requiring larger employers to share costs of insuring workers.

THE SPIN: "I've offered spending cuts above and beyond their cost."

THE FACTS: Independent analysts say both Obama and Republican John McCain would deepen the deficit. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Obama's policy proposals would add a net $428 billion to the deficit over four years -- and that analysis accepts the savings he claims from spending cuts. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, whose other findings have been quoted approvingly by the Obama campaign, says: "Both John McCain and Barack Obama have proposed tax plans that would substantially increase the national debt over the next 10 years." The analysis goes on to say: "Neither candidate's plan would significantly increase economic growth unless offset by spending cuts or tax increases that the campaigns have not specified."

THE SPIN: "Here's what I'll do. Cut taxes for every working family making less than $200,000 a year. Give businesses a tax credit for every new employee that they hire right here in the U.S. over the next two years and eliminate tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Help homeowners who are making a good faith effort to pay their mortgages, by freezing foreclosures for 90 days. And just like after 9-11, we'll provide low-cost loans to help small businesses pay their workers and keep their doors open. "

THE FACTS: His proposals -- the tax cuts, the low-cost loans, the $15 billion a year he promises for alternative energy, and more -- cost money, and the country could be facing a record $1 trillion deficit next year. Indeed, Obama recently acknowledged -- although not in his commercial -- that: "The next president will have to scale back his agenda and some of his proposals."

Is A McCain Electoral Path Still Possible (Updated)?

This is the map as it stands now, shows Barack Obama with a heavy margin in the electoral college.  To win, McCain must capture all current toss-up states (MT, ND, MO, GA and FL) as well as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  McCain trails in all but MT and ND at this time, though he has gained ground significantly over the past two weeks and in Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina may be leading by week end.

    Obama/Biden 311

    McCain/Palin 142

    259 Solid    52 Leaning

    127 Solid     15 Leaning

                                     (85 Toss Up)

cuurent elecoral1

This map shows the scenario described above.  It requires McCain to capture all six states where the race is within 2-3%  currently, as well as capturing Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana, where the polls show him trailing by 4-8%.  However, if the trends of the past two weeks were to continue it would put the toss-ups into McCain likely tally and Missouri, Ohio and Indiana within one to two percent.  Theses thin margins could be sufficient if the late undecided voters break unusually heavily for McCain, and if any of the possible drag factors we've discussed previously materialize. 

Obama/Biden 264                      McCain/Palin 274

mccain path1

This is the only path I can still envision as having a real chance to occur, and even then everything must go McCain's way.  Still, it is more likely than I would have thought just judging by the number of states that will have to change hands.  Why?  For this to happen, no reversal is required - all that is required is for the current trend in these states over the last two weeks to continue, in combination with any one additional Obama drag effects we've discussed here. 

Oh, is that all?  It is a long shot (though maybe not quite so long as it appears at first glance) indeed, but if it does happen, or nearly so, we may be waiting until Wednesday or even Thursday to call the race. 

Whoever wins, I have a cigar ready to celebrate the end of the campaign and the lies, distortions, name-calling and neighbor tension that has seemed to overtop the levies of civil society in especially large waves this year.  If you don't see what I mean, refer to the Washington race for Governor.  One candidate has all but claimed the other supports child molesters, and the other has likened his opponent to a smelly diaper.  Really. 

UPDATE:

As of this morning, you'll see that Karl Rove has updated his version of the electoral map including the latest poll split in each state. 

Rove 1030081 

The Obama campaign is keeping its' polling close to the vest - presumably because the race is getting closer and therefore they wish to get attention off the poll trends.  It makes sense from his standpoint, though I always chuckle when I hear surrogates and the candidate saying that polls are meaningless, or that they don't pay attention to polls, when that campaign has spent more than $22 million on polling in this election cycle.  I usually try to spend a little less than that on meaningless things that I ignore...

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

A Truly Great Church Sign

Technorati Tags: ,

McCain Chief Pollster: Too Close to Call

If you are interested in why the McCain campaign believes the race for President is tightening dramatically in the last week, read this blog entry:  http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/mccain_pollster_race_too_close_to_call/

Several of the trends we've discussed here are also included in the memo, and some very interesting additional details related to overpolling and late-breaking voters are discussed.

The Gallup likely voters poll has the race at two points, and McCain has significantly broken the 45% barrier that has been his high water mark for much of the campaign.  Rasmussen has the race at three points this morning, with Zogby and IBD both at four.

Still, what must be said about all of this tightening is that McCain will have to win Ohio, and hold at least five other toss-up states.  He still has to run the table, and so unless the trend toward a tighter race is very dramatic (say seven or eight points, like with Carter/Reagan), and very broad (affecting all the battleground states) then it is a very unlikely outcome for McCain to win the electoral college.    Still, it is a very interesting race far later than history, an epically unpopular president, an excellent-campaigning Democratic opponent, a bad economy and an oddly put-together Republican ticket would have lead me to believe two months ago. 

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Ask an Unwelcome Question, Get Boycotted

WTVF television in Orlando ran a scheduled interview with Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden.  In the interview, the anchor asked Biden a question about the recent comment by Barack Obama that seemed to indicate that he wanted to tax higher incomes and 'spread the wealth around'.  Having read Karl Marx, I admit, that the same quote that the anchor used in asking her question popped into my mind at the time I heard Obama's remark: "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need."

The Obama-Biden campaign immediately canceled an interview the station was planning to do with Jill Biden: "There's nothing wrong with tough questions, but reporters have the very important job of sharing the truth with the public -- not misleading the American people with false information. Senator Biden handled the interview well; however, the anchor was completely unprofessional. Senator Biden's wife is not running for elected office, and there are many other stations in the Orlando television market that would gladly conduct a respectful and factual interview with her." "This cancellation is non-negotiable, and further opportunities for your station to interview with this campaign are unlikely, at best for the duration of the remaining days until the election."

Now I can understand why it is politically inconvenient to have Marxism introduced into a campaign, and the polls have reflected some impact to the Obama campaign since the comment concerning spreading the wealth around was made.  But in looking at the two statements, I just simply cannot see the difference between:

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need" and "I think when you spread the wealth around, it is good for everybody." 

(Note: I imagine that at whatever level you set the bar and begin taking wealth from some and spreading it around to others there may be some mumbling about the "good for everyone" part of this comment).

Is there a big difference in those two quotes that I am not seeing?  Marx advocated more comprehensive redistribution of wealth (essentially leveling out wealth across the population), but the idea certainly seems to be compatible with Marx's views.  You could surely see that Biden was incensed, indignant and angry to be asked about Marxist leanings (though the idea that the remark was essentially reflective of a socialist point of view), and I can understand not wanting to have his campaign labeled as socialist or Marxist.  But I truly don't see why asking this question was 'completely unprofessional'.  There are people all over the country debating whether Obama's comment reflects a real desire to be a modern day Robin Hood, socialism, etc., but when an anchor mentions it to the candidate?  Bam! No soup for you! 

I wonder if this is a hint about how the Obama White House might handle 'the wrong kind' of questions from the press in the future? 

Oh, and one more thing that occurred to me when I saw Biden's response:  he was way too upset to be asked a question he despised.  The image that popped into my head was of a former president, angry as hell at a reporter who had the temerity to question him: "I did not have sex with that woman - Miss Lewinksy". 

Saturday, October 25, 2008

In Case of Tsunami

Since the huge tsunami which struck in the Indian Ocean many communities have accelerated their tsunami warning and evacuation route notice programs.  We've seen lots of new signs all along the coast, but this one takes the cake.  If you want to get someone's attention about tsunami evacuation, how about this sign:

Note:  If this is your photo please let me know.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Electoral Map Shows McCain Must Sweep to Win

We've been looking at the poll trends, both nationally and in the key or battleground states.  For all the interesting trends and underlying possibilities that could shape the last ten days of the campaign, there is one perspective that is perhaps the most predictive of the ultimate outcome, and that is the status of the electoral college.  As of today's polls, McCain is over 110 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to be elected.  Obama has about 35-40 more votes than are required.  Now the voters may still shift, and do so dramatically - even a six or seven point shift is possible with the leading candidate under 50% - but as a practical matter this shift would have to be a perfect sweep for McCain to win the Presidency.  That is to say that he would have to win all of the battleground states, and one or two currently leaning Obama.  Obama, on the other hand, need only win one - Colorado or Florida or Virginia or...well, the point is that though it is still a possibility that McCain could win, and a likelihood that the race will be even closer than it is today, it is a very long shot that he could run the table.  Bookmakers are estimating the probability at 83% that Obama will win, and it is this electoral college situation that makes an Obama victory seem so likely.  Even if McCain comes from well back in the last ten days, and wins all but one of the states called battleground states, he'd still fall short of the required 270 electoral votes.  In short, McCain must win every toss-up and battleground state.  Now that, is a tall order.  MB

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Is the 2008 Election Still Within Reach for McCain/Palin?

Whether the polls are nearer to three or seven nationally, the electoral map has been changing dramatically over the last month.  Karl Rove regularly publishes maps with his call on the state polls and the electoral status.  Below is the latest electoral college race according to Karl Rove: 

Electoral Map

I mentioned in an earlier post that the race seems to have some similarities to the 1980 election - one where the voters made up their mind over the last weekend that they were indeed comfortable with Ronald Reagan.  It occurs to me that it may also be like the 1948 election, where Truman was trailing by seven points with one week remaining in the campaign, and on election day the voters ultimately decided they were not as comfortable with Dewey as with the experienced Truman. 

Of course, many of these questions are driven by the perceptions underlying the overall preferences of voters for a candidate.  In that next layer of poll data we learn more about why they are leaning and choosing as they are, and we see trends that make the race fluid.  What we don't know is how high the tide will be on November 4, and in fact, which underlying trends will be lifted with whatever tide rises.  

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

More close polls and slanted news coverage?

More polls show a tightening race - Gallup Traditional shows Obama regaining 5 point lead

Today the AP-GfK released its latest poll.  It shows John McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch, with Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, well within the margin of error. Just three weeks ago, this survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain.

The IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's lead is down to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain gained ground in the West and with independents, married women, as well as gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama added gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents. (IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season for the 2004 election.)

The latest Gallup Traditional Poll shows Obama stretching his lead back to 5 points from a recent low of 2.7%, while the Real Clear Politics average has moved back up to about 7% from a low of just over 5% on Monday. 

It is clear that McCain made some gains in the period after the third debate, though it is less clear how much he has gained, and if the increase has already peaked.  I still have some questions about how late-breaking voters will go - Obama is still running at just 52% 'ready to be President' compared to McCain's 80%, so it may be that late-breaking undecideds will ultimately decide that he is ready, or it may be that they won't reach that tipping point and will go for McCain based on his experience.  It is one reason that you'll see Obama exhorting crowds to vote early in his current stump speech. 

MEDIA Coverage Comparison - McCain stories overwhelmingly negative, according to Project for Excellence in Journalism study

The media coverage of the race for president has not so much cast Barack Obama in a favorable light as it has portrayed John McCain in a substantially negative one, according to a new study of the media since the two national political conventions ended.

Press treatment of Obama has been somewhat more positive than negative, but not markedly so. 

But coverage of McCain has been heavily unfavorable—and has become more so over time. In the six weeks following the conventions through the final debate, unfavorable stories about McCain outweighed favorable ones by a factor of more than three to one—the most unfavorable of all four candidates—according to the study by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.

For Obama during this period, just over a third of the stories were clearly positive in tone (36%), while a similar number (35%) were neutral or mixed. A smaller number (29%) were negative.

For McCain, by comparison, nearly six in ten of the stories studied were decidedly negative in nature (57%), while fewer than two in ten (14%) were positive.

All of this makes me wonder if the media that seems to be favoring Obama in how he is reported are somehow tweaking the sense of fairness among viewers/readers with the overwhelmingly negative coverage? 

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

A Couple of Notes from Today on the Campaign Trail

Today I've witnessed two rather blatant examples of the kind of character assassination and ordinary meanness that has come to characterize politics and this campaign:

First, Barack Obama is taking part of two days off from campaigning to go to Hawaii. Now when I first heard this as a headline I thought, "Wow". Then a few minutes later I heard the details. He is going to visit his grandmother - the woman who virtually raised him - at her home. She has been ill lately, and broker her hip just last week.

So how does this show rancorous campaign behavior? Well, think about the headline I heard. It made the trip sound like a vacation, when it is indeed anything but a vacation. But it got worse. During the day I have read and heard comments and questions speculating about whether the trip is a political stunt to make Obama look more human and less detached, or whether he would be visiting his grandmother if he wasn't well ahead in the polls. That people are so focused on defeating the opponent, using every action or statement if a way to use it to discredit can be found. All that needs to be said about Senator Obama's visit to his grandmother is that he is taking two days to spend with his seriously ill grandmother. Period.

Second, I happened upon this gem from Malia Lazu, a Democratic strategist who was appearing on Neil Cavuto's show:

"If you have been lucky, to achieve your dream and it is a lot larger than everyone else, then as an American you should want to babies learn how to read, go to doctors and have schools."

This is an example of a couple things in my mind. Just look at the language she chose to use and you'll see some demagoguery and a clear indication that she views anyone who succeeds financially as having taken advantage of someone to do so. She also manages to use the royal 'should', to tell us that if we are decent people we must view this as she does. Here's what we learn from that brief remark:

1. People who succeed financially are 'lucky'.

2. People who achieve a dream that is a lot larger than everyone else (this tells us that the success described here is excessive).

3. If you are decent, a decent American you should (must) want to pay more taxes for the benefit of others.

4. The demagoguery comes last, where she takes a discussion of what sort of tax policy is best, fair, etc. and introduces the welfare of 'babies'. In other words, if you don't agree with her, even though she has made it clear that decent Americans should, then you must be against babies being educated and healthy.

Nauseating. If I had started out agreeing with her I would have to fight myself not to change my opinion just to avoid being linked in any way with this statement and the beliefs it reveals. She later went on to say that people who have made money have done so "on the backs of others".

So on the one hand, there are people who cannot help themselves and must question whether Obama visiting his ailing Grandmother is a political stunt, while on the other hand we are told that if we don't agree with raising taxes on the highest earners we support sick and uneducated babies. See why I hate the way politics are making us behave? Coarse, base, judgmental and, as Dana Carvey might say, "just a wee bit superior."

Attack Politics Gone too Far

Whatever one thinks of Joe the Plumber's question to Senator Obama, the way he was treated afterward has got to send a small shiver up your spine.  The guy asked a question about his family's financial future of a man running for president.  It is a question many Americans would like to ask.  And because he did this, he has been investigated in great detail.  People have pulled his tax records, his property records, his voting and contributions records.  Reporters have called his company, friends, even some customers for whom he has done work. 

Think about it for a minute.  Because a citizen asked a question of a candidate, he was fair game for reporters to investigate and background.  It was suddenly 'news' to know whether he is a licensed  plumber or simply works under the supervision of one (like many employees of plumbing companies do).  I can only imagine that if he'd been divorced three times, or had a DUI or any other prurient life event had been part of his jacket we'd hear about them as well.  Why?

A private citizen asked a question of a candidate.  The question got videotaped, and then broadcast.  The candidate used a phrase that stuck in the craws of many people, and the question became well-known.  But by the third day after the question was asked, the question was no longer the news.  The answer was no longer the news.  By then, what was really important about the matter was Joe.  Is he qualified to ask a question?  Did he trick the candidate?  Is he someone with nefarious intent?  Does he wear boxers or briefs?  Yes, the focus was very quickly removed from a substantive question and a meaningful answer to an inquest into the character of the citizen who had the temerity to ask it. 

For the record, I don't see anything wrong with the question OR the answer.  Government already 'spreads the wealth around' to a degree, and one key question before the voters is 'should government redistribute money from the wealthy to the poor' to a greater degree than at present.  You see, the Obama campaign feared that phrase not because it misrepresented what Obama wants to do, but because it was artlessly phrased and might hurt him in the polls.  McCain's campaign gleefully glommed onto it and announced that it makes Obama socialist.  We ALREADY do this, folks.  The question is not whether our society redistributes wealth.  The question is how much, and how?  And the fact that some guy that asked a perfectly meaningful and reasonable question came under attack from one side and was used as a prop by the other says as much as any other example about what is wrong with us in general and what is wrong with campaigns in particular.

I am saddened that we live now in a place where if I disagree with you on some matter, before long that disagreement is seen as justification to put my life and character on trial in the court of public opinion.  What is disturbing isn't just this, though, it is that the character bashing is used to deflect and halt examination and discussion of the real issue raised, which in this case was should we take earnings from people making over a certain amount to give to people of low income in various ways?  Rational human beings can make arguments and hold genuine beliefs from either side of that question.  Instead, we attack the guy that asked it and go back to labeling and name-calling.  The questioner becomes the story and the two sides of his question are lost in the new cliches shouted from the wings onto the electoral stage: "Socialist!" yells the right, while from the left come cries "tax breaks for the rich while the poor starve!".  And news vans park in front of Joe's house and sift through his garbage. 

Is there really anyone reading this that doesn't get why I am so sick of our politics and the direction public discourse is heading in America?

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Polls Show Tightening Race

Beginning just two days ago a trend began that seems to indicate that the gap between Barrack Obama and John McCain is shrinking. Zogby released the latest poll (October 19), with Obama leading McCain by just 2.7% - within the 2.9 % margin of error. This follows the Gallup traditional voters poll, which was the first to show this recent trend.

In the battleground states, the most recent poll shows Obama's lead shrinking by one-fifth (down 1% from 5% to 4%) since last week, and that the bulk of the uptick for McCain is coming from the still-undecided voters.  The total undecided voter group dropped by 1%, about the gain McCain is posting.

The Rasmussen poll shows Obama holding a fairly steady five point lead, and that while most Americans feel that tax cuts are the most important thing that can be done to help the economy, many also feel that raising taxes on 'the rich' is not a bad idea.

So, if the race ended today? The oddsmakers line has Obama at 83% probability of winning. My questions:

Will McCain continue to trend upward?

Will undecided voters feel comfortable with what they know of Senator Obama as they near the election day and reach their 'tipping point'?

Will there be any Bradley effect?

For someone very tired of the coarse, abrasive and intentionally misleading campaign, looking at the many elements of public opinion and perspective is a welcome refuge from the mudslinging.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Closer than it Seemed?

The Gallup likely voter poll for today shows that likely voters are breaking toward McCain as the election nears. Today's poll of likely voters shows Obama leading McCain 49 to 47 - a four point improvement for McCain since Tuesday and within the margin of error for the poll.

Readers of this blog will recall that I have been wondering if this race would close up as the election neared and if undecided voters would ultimately decide they feel comfortable with Senator Obama. It will be interesting to see if Zogby, Rasmussen end up with a similar McCain bounce this week, and what kind of coverage the poll gets in the media. Obama supporters have only to recall the lost momentum late in the primary campaign as Hillary Clinton came back from the dead and Obama was able to hold the nomination only because he'd built such a margin early on.

As I speculated in an earlier post: is his lead large enough, and are people 'sold' on this candidate? It would give me concern if my candidate had a history of soft-polling to be within four or five points heading into the election weekend. Add to that the other issues that may or may not be real issues in the voting booth, and I would think the Obama campaign must be quietly nervous behind closed doors.

Still, it is just one poll right now, so we'll have to keep a weather eye for Zogby and Rassmussen, et al, over the next few days.

That isn't Fair!

"Expecting the world to treat you fairly
because you are a good person
is a little like expecting the bull not to attack you
because you are a vegetarian." --Dennis Wholey

"That isn't fair!" I am often surprised at myself when I use this phrase. I am even more often surprised with others when they say something along those lines. It is not surprising coming from children, I suppose, for as children we have not yet learned the truth about fairness. As children we can still yet believe that fairness will govern our lives, though it doesn't take many formative years to begin bruising that belief. Usually it is adults that surprise me when they speak of things being fair or unfair. Of course, I understand our desire to apply fairness as a concept to our lives, but by now most of us have realized that fairness is more the exception than the rule. Fairness is an ideal, it is something to strive for, but for the most part it is only an external and subjective judgement and not a governing property. More simply put, fairness is something we all wish for, and many of us strive for, but most of the time life isn't fair.

Perhaps this impulse is vestigial; a soft lingering whisper down the years from our childhood to our adulthood. As parents we often tell our children to 'play fair'. And we should, no doubt. But as parents we also watch our children come gradually to the same dawning practical realization - life ain't fair. There are bullies in this world. Some kids are smarter than others. Some don't have enough food or a warm coat and others think nothing of wasting extravagant quantities of everything. There is cancer and war and natural disaster. There is crime and abuse. And no matter what some television evangelist says, bad things happen to good people too. If the wages of sin are death, it is just as sure that the wages of life are inequity. Life ain't fair.

Yet when I listen to the words people choose when discussing events in their life, it is surprising how often I hear people express surprise and even shock at how unfair life can be. On some level, despite intellectual awareness that life cannot be fair, we hold on to a belief that it is. We express surprise when life is not fair to us or others, and if the issue is upsetting enough we organize to protest or raise money to fight back, or try to pass legislation that mandates fairness. Though we know in our hearts that life ain't fair, we feel a strong need to fight for fairness. What kind of world would we live in if we could not even cling to the hope that life will deal fairly with us?

It seems to me that this dichotomy in our zeitgeist is healthy in the abstract. It gives us hope, and allows us to balance our perspective between a grim realism and a grounded optimism. The idea that we can expect life to be fair is so clearly wrong that many of the big disappointments in life have such an impact because we expect 'fair' treatment when we can have no reasonable expectation of fairness. But at the same time, were we to choose to expect life always to be unfair we'd probably never leave the house. Somewhere there is a good balance between the realistic awareness that fairness is not to be expected and the hopeful expectation that people will at least try to be fair to one another. And in practice, the only fairness we can really bring about is our own fair treatment of others.

"You must be the change you wish to see in the world." --Mahatma Gandhi

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Old Wisdom, Fresh Today

The budget should be balanced. Public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered, and assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome become bankrupt.
--Marcus Tullius Cicero

I also thought about this, the greatest Roman orator, a man that believed that good and evil were always good or always evil. Unlike the Sophists of the past, who believed essentially that the truth is whatever the speaker can convince the audience is true, Cicero believed that the truth was constant, and rhetoric was to be used only to illuminate truth.

When you watch campaign events and the 'talking heads' representing both parties, do you get the feeling they are illuminating the truth? When I consider that question it is clear enough to me that our politics are closer to the sophist than to Cicero. The sophist routinely used ad hominem arguments, intent upon winning an argument by diminishing an opponent in the eyes of the jury or audience, rather than on the merits of the matter under consideration. Sound like any speakers we can think of today? To me, both donkeys and elephants make full-time use of the sophist approach. Attack the other guy, muddy the waters, make yourself look good by tearing the other person down. I honestly don't see how anyone watching the political campaigns today could disagree.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Never Be Afraid

Never be afraid

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Never Say Die: Why We Can't Imagine Death

This is a fascinating article whatever your beliefs about the soul, and about life after death.  I am particularly interested in the fact that every human culture has a tradition about life after death.  One school of thought is that all such feeling is merely a facet of terror management designed to protect us from the crippling anxiety of non-existence.  It is interesting to note, though, that this belief that we continue on in some way begins well earlier in life than we show consciousness of our own mortality.  Very interesting and thought-provoking article. 

Scientific American Mind -  October 22, 2008

Why so many of us think our minds continue on after we die

By Jesse Bering

Everybody’s wonderin’ what and where they all came from.
Everybody’s worryin’ ’bout where they’re gonna go when the whole thing’s done.
But no one knows for certain and so it’s all the same to me.
I think I’ll just let the mystery be.

It should strike us as odd that we feel inclined to nod our heads in agreement to the twangy, sweetly discordant folk vocals of Iris Dement in “Let the Mystery Be,” a humble paean about the hereafter. In fact, the only real mystery is why we’re so convinced that when it comes to where we’re going “when the whole thing’s done,” we’re dealing with a mystery at all. After all, the brain is like any other organ: a part of our physical body. And the mind is what the brain does—it’s more a verb than it is a noun. Why do we wonder where our mind goes when the body is dead? Shouldn’t it be obvious that the mind is dead, too?

And yet people in every culture believe in an afterlife of some kind or, at the very least, are unsure about what happens to the mind at death. My psychological research has led me to believe that these irrational beliefs, rather than resulting from religion or serving to protect us from the terror of inexistence, are an inevitable by-product of self-consciousness. Because we have never experienced a lack of consciousness, we cannot imagine what it will feel like to be dead. In fact, it won’t feel like anything—and therein lies the problem.

The common view of death as a great mystery usually is brushed aside as an emotionally fueled desire to believe that death isn’t the end of the road. And indeed, a prominent school of research in social psychology called terror management theory contends that afterlife beliefs, as well as less obvious beliefs, behaviors and attitudes, exist to assuage what would otherwise be crippling anxiety about the ego’s inexistence.

According to proponents, you possess a secret arsenal of psychological defenses designed to keep your death anxiety at bay (and to keep you from ending up in the fetal position listening to Nick Drake on your iPod). My writing this article, for example, would be interpreted as an exercise in “symbolic immortality”; terror management theorists would likely tell you that I wrote it for posterity, to enable a concrete set of my ephemeral ideas to outlive me, the biological organism. (I would tell you that I’d be happy enough if a year from now it still had a faint pulse.)

Yet a small number of researchers, including me, are increasingly arguing that the evolution of self-consciousness has posed a different kind of problem altogether. This position holds that our ancestors suffered the unshakable illusion that their minds were immortal, and it’s this hiccup of gross irrationality that we have unmistakably inherited from them. Individual human beings, by virtue of their evolved cognitive architecture, had trouble conceptualizing their own psychological inexistence from the start.

Curiously Immortal
The problem applies even to those who claim not to believe in an afterlife. As philosopher and Center for Naturalism founder Thomas W. Clark wrote in a 1994 article for the Humanist:

Here ... is the view at issue: When we die, what’s next is nothing; death is an abyss, a black hole, the end of experience; it is eternal nothingness, the permanent extinction of being. And here, in a nutshell, is the error contained in that view: It is to reify nothingness—make it a positive condition or quality (for example, of “blackness”)—and then to place the individual in it after death, so that we somehow fall into nothingness, to remain there eternally.

Consider the rather startling fact that you will never know you have died. You may feel yourself slipping away, but it isn’t as though there will be a “you” around who is capable of ascertaining that, once all is said and done, it has actually happened. Just to remind you, you need a working cerebral cortex to harbor propositional knowledge of any sort, including the fact that you’ve died—and once you’ve died your brain is about as phenomenally generative as a head of lettuce. In a 2007 article published in the journal Synthese, University of Arizona philosopher Shaun Nichols puts it this way: “When I try to imagine my own non-existence I have to imagine that I perceive or know about my non-existence. No wonder there’s an obstacle!”

This observation may not sound like a major revelation to you, but I bet you’ve never considered what it actually means, which is that your own mortality is unfalsifiable from the first-person perspective. This obstacle is why writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe allegedly remarked that “everyone carries the proof of his own immortality within himself.”

Even when we want to believe that our minds end at death, it is a real struggle to think in this way. A study I published in the Journal of Cognition and Culture in 2002 reveals the illusion of immortality operating in full swing in the minds of undergraduate students who were asked a series of questions about the psychological faculties of a dead man.

Richard, I told the students, had been killed instantaneously when his vehicle plunged into a utility pole. After the participants read a narrative about Richard’s state of mind just prior to the accident, I queried them as to whether the man, now that he was dead, retained the capacity to experience mental states. “Is Richard still thinking about his wife?” I asked them. “Can he still taste the flavor of the breath mint he ate just before he died? Does he want to be alive?”

You can imagine the looks I got, because apparently not many people pause to consider whether souls have taste buds, become randy or get headaches. Yet most gave answers indicative of “psychological continuity reasoning,” in which they envisioned Richard’s mind to continue functioning despite his death. This finding came as no surprise given that, on a separate scale, most respondents classified themselves as having a belief in some form of an afterlife.

What was surprising, however, was that many participants who had identified themselves as having “extinctivist” beliefs (they had ticked off the box that read: “What we think of as the ‘soul,’ or conscious personality of a person, ceases permanently when the body dies”) occasionally gave psychological-continuity responses, too. Thirty-two percent of the extinctivists’ answers betrayed their hidden reasoning that emotions and desires survive death; another 36 percent of their responses suggested the extinctivists reasoned this way for mental states related to knowledge (such as remembering, believing or knowing). One particularly vehement extinctivist thought the whole line of questioning silly and seemed to regard me as a numbskull for even asking. But just as well—he proceeded to point out that of course Richard knows he is dead, because there’s no afterlife and Richard sees that now.

So why is it so hard to conceptualize inexistence anyway? Part of my own account, which I call the “simulation constraint hypothesis,” is that in attempting to imagine what it’s like to be dead we appeal to our own background of conscious experiences—because that’s how we approach most thought experiments. Death isn’t “like” anything we’ve ever experienced, however. Because we have never consciously been without consciousness, even our best simulations of true nothingness just aren’t good enough.

For us extinctivists, it’s kind of like staring into a hallway of mirrors—but rather than confronting a visual trick, we’re dealing with cognitive reverberations of subjective experience. In Spanish philosopher Miguel de Unamuno’s 1913 existential screed, The Tragic Sense of Life, one can almost see the author tearing out his hair contemplating this very fact. “Try to fill your consciousness with the representation of no-consciousness,” he writes, “and you will see the impossibility of it. The effort to comprehend it causes the most tormenting dizziness.”

Wait, you say, isn’t Unamuno forgetting something? We certainly do have experience with nothingness. Every night, in fact, when we’re in dreamless sleep. But you’d be mistaken in this assumption. Clark puts it this way (emphasis mine): “We may occasionally have the impression of having experienced or ‘undergone’ a period of unconsciousness, but, of course, this is impossible. The ‘nothingness’ of unconsciousness cannot be an experienced actuality.”

If psychological immortality represents the intuitive, natural way of thinking about death, then we might expect young children to be particularly inclined to reason in this way. As an eight-year-old, I watched as the remains of our family’s golden retriever, Sam, were buried in the woods behind our house. Still, I thought Sam had a mind capable of knowing I loved her and I was sorry I didn’t get to say goodbye. That Sam’s spirit lived on was not something my parents or anyone else ever explicitly pointed out to me. Although she had been reduced to no more than a few ounces of dust, which was in turn sealed in a now waterlogged box, it never even occurred to me that it was a strange idea.

Yet if you were to have asked me what Sam was experiencing, I probably would have muttered something like the type of answers Gerald P. Koocher reported hearing in a 1973 study published in Developmental Psychology. Koocher, then a doctoral student at the University of Missouri–Columbia and later president of the American Psychological Association, asked six- to 15-year-olds what happens when you die. Consistent with the simulation-constraint hypothesis, many answers relied on everyday experience to describe death, “with references to sleeping, feeling ‘peaceful,’ or simply ‘being very dizzy.’ ”

A Mind-Body Disconnect
But Koocher’s study in itself doesn’t tell us where such ideas come from. The simulation-constraint hypothesis posits that this type of thinking is innate and unlearned. Fortunately, this hypothesis is falsifiable. If afterlife beliefs are a product of cultural indoctrination, with children picking up such ideas through religious teachings, through the media, or informally through family and friends, then one should rationally predict that psychological-continuity reasoning increases with age. Aside from becoming more aware of their own mortality, after all, older kids have had a longer period of exposure to the concept of an afterlife.

In fact, recent findings show the opposite developmental trend. In a 2004 study reported in Developmental Psychology, Florida Atlantic University psychologist David F. Bjorklund and I presented 200 three- to 12-year-olds with a puppet show. Every child saw the story of Baby Mouse, who was out strolling innocently in the woods. “Just then,” we told them, “he notices something very strange. The bushes are moving! An alligator jumps out of the bushes and gobbles him all up. Baby Mouse is not alive anymore.”

Just like the adults from the previously mentioned study, the children were asked about dead Baby Mouse’s psychological functioning. “Does Baby Mouse still want to go home?” we asked them. “Does he still feel sick?” “Can he still smell the flowers?” The youngest children in the study, the three- to five-year-olds, were significantly more likely to reason in terms of psychological continuity than children from the two older age groups were.

But here’s the really curious part. Even the preschoolers had a solid grasp on biological cessation; they knew, for example, that dead Baby Mouse didn’t need food or water anymore. They knew he wouldn’t grow up to be an adult mouse. Heck, 85 percent of the youngest kids even told us that his brain no longer worked. Yet most of these very young children then told us that dead Baby Mouse was hungry or thirsty, that he felt better or that he was still angry at his brother.

One couldn’t say that the preschoolers lacked a concept of death, therefore, because nearly all of the kids realized that biological imperatives no longer applied after death. Rather they seemed to have trouble using this knowledge to theorize about related mental functions.

From an evolutionary perspective, a coherent theory about psychological death is not necessarily vital. Anthropologist H. Clark Barrett of the University of California, Los Angeles, believes instead that understanding the cessation of “agency” (for example, that a dead creature isn’t going to suddenly leap up and bite you) is probably what saved lives (and thus genes). According to Barrett, comprehending the cessation of the mind, on the other hand, has no survival value and is, in an evolutionary sense, unnecessary.

In a 2005 study published in the journal Cognition, Barrett and psychologist Tanya Behne of the University of Manchester in England reported that city-dwelling four-year-olds from Berlin were just as good at distinguishing sleeping animals from dead ones as hunter-horticulturalist children from the Shuar region of Ecuador were. Even today’s urban children appear tuned in to perceptual cues signaling death. A “violation of the body envelope” (in other words, a mutilated carcass) is a pretty good sign that one needn’t worry about tiptoeing around.

The Culture Factor
On the one hand, then, from a very early age, children realize that dead bodies are not coming back to life. On the other hand, also from a very early age, kids endow the dead with ongoing psychological functions. So where do culture and religious teaching come into the mix, if at all?

In fact, exposure to the concept of an afterlife plays a crucial role in enriching and elaborating this natural cognitive stance; it’s sort of like an architectural scaffolding process, whereby culture develops and decorates the innate psychological building blocks of religious belief. The end product can be as ornate or austere as you like, from the headache-inducing reincarnation beliefs of Theravada Buddhists to the man on the street’s “I believe there’s something” brand of philosophy—but it’s made of the same brick and mortar just the same.

In support of the idea that culture influences our natural tendency to deny the death of the mind, Harvard University psychologist Paul Harris and researcher Marta Giménez of the National University of Distance Education in Spain showed that when the wording in interviews is tweaked to include medical or scientific terms, psychological-continuity reasoning decreases. In this 2005 study published in the Journal of Cognition and Culture, seven- to 11-year-old children in Madrid who heard a story about a priest telling a child that his grandmother “is with God” were more likely to attribute ongoing mental states to the decedent than were those who heard the identical story but instead about a doctor saying a grandfather was “dead and buried.”

And in a 2005 replication of the Baby Mouse experiment published in the British Journal of Developmental Psychology, psychologist David Bjorklund and I teamed with psychologist Carlos Hernández Blasi of Jaume I University in Spain to compare children in a Catholic school with those attending a public secular school in Castellón, Spain. As in the previous study, an overwhelming majority of the youngest children—five- to six-year-olds—from both educational backgrounds said that Baby Mouse’s mental states survived. The type of curriculum, secular or religious, made no difference. With increasing age, however, culture becomes a factor—the kids attending Catholic school were more likely to reason in terms of psychological continuity than were those at the secular school. There was even a smattering of young extinctivists in the latter camp.

Free Spirits
The types of cognitive obstacles discussed earlier may be responsible for our innate sense
of immortality. But although the simulation-constraint hypothesis helps to explain why so many people believe in something as fantastically illogical as an afterlife, it doesn’t tell us why people see the soul unbuckling itself from the body and floating off like an invisible helium balloon into the realm of eternity. After all, there’s nothing to stop us from having afterlife beliefs that involve the still active mind being entombed in the skull and deliriously happy. Yet almost nobody has such a belief.

Back when you were still in diapers, you learned that people didn’t cease to exist simply because you couldn’t see them. Developmental psychologists even have a fancy term for this basic concept: “person permanence.” Such an off-line social awareness leads us to tacitly assume that the people we know are somewhere doing something. As I’m writing this article in Belfast, for example, my mind’s eye conjures up my friend Ginger in New Orleans walking her poodle or playfully bickering with her husband, things that I know she does routinely.

As I’ve argued in my 2006 Behavioral and Brain Sciences article, “The Folk Psychology of Souls,” human cognition is not equipped to update the list of players in our complex social rosters by accommodating a particular person’s sudden inexistence. We can’t simply switch off our person-permanence thinking just because someone has died. This inability is especially the case, of course, for those whom we were closest to and whom we frequently imagined to be actively engaging in various activities when out of sight.

And so person permanence may be the final cognitive hurdle that gets in the way of our effectively realizing the dead as they truly are—infinitely in situ, inanimate carbon residue. Instead it’s much more “natural” to imagine them as existing in some vague, unobservable locale, very much living their dead lives.

Note: This article was originally printed with the title, "The End?"

Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.