At the least, this tells me what we all ought to remember at election time: It is far easier to run for office that to run the office once you’ve won.
CNN Poll: Was Bush better president than Obama? – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Friday, October 08, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
Charles Krauthammer - The fruits of weakness
It is perilous indeed to pull out the historical comparisons, and recently I have noted a lot of rumblings – well, more than usual – from conservatives characterizing President Obama’s foreign policy as one of appeasement and toothless sanction – and comparing it to the appeasement policies of Neville Chamberlain . Most of the time, these comparisons over-simplify issues. Krauthammer’s piece points out the possible and actual consequences of a toothless, one-down interaction with the world. Even if you don’t agree with part or all of what he says, it is worth a read. Link below. MB
Friday, October 09, 2009
Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize
There has been a lot of surprise, excitement, shock and criticism since the Nobel committee announced the Peace Prize for this year. The chief criticism seems to be that the President has not accomplished enough to win. Since nominations were required on February 11, and he had been in office for just 11 days when he was nominated, I imagine that accomplishment may not have been the message the committee was sending. I tend to agree with the President’s own assessment, that the award is sometimes given in recognition of accomplishment, and sometimes to offer momentum to a movement. When Theodore Roosevelt won, it was for almost literally forcing the Japanese and Russians to sign a peace agreement and end their war (using his prestige as President, not military threat). That was an accomplishment - a result, or outcome. I imagine that the President hopes very much that the award will give some added 'wind to his sails' as he attempts to turn the promise of change into a program that creates the desired results - or, accomplishment.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Is the U.S. Preparing to bomb Iran? - ABC News
There have been so many pourings of tea, and reading of tea leaves in the last five years over whether, when, how and could the US or Israel destroy the capability of Iran to build nuclear weapons. I admit that I have read as many of them as I have come across, and this article particularly caught my attention. I can’t say that I think that this will prove to be prophetic, though well may it, but it strikes me as just the sort of way that we might come to some inkling of an attack. A very interesting article from ABC News:
Saturday, September 12, 2009
A Little Jolt of Perspective from Ms. Baines
According to the Associated Press, Gertrude Baines, the world's oldest known person died Friday at a nursing home. She was 115.
It is hard to grasp just how different was the world into which she was born in 1894 is from the world today. Tsar Nicholas II succeeded his father Alexander III. He would live and rule for another twenty-four years before the Bolshevik Revolution swept him, and the Empire away. Norman Rockwell was born, as was Nikita Khrushchev. Robert Louis Stevenson died. Grover Cleveland was President of the United States. The Emancipation Proclamation had been issued 32 years prior, the Fourteenth Amendment had given African Americans the right to be citizens 26 years prior, and the Fifteenth had given African American men the vote just 24 years before. A case then in court would ultimately require ‘separate but equal’ facilities for people of color and Caucasians just two years later in 1896 (Plessey v. Ferguson). The strife and progress of the Civil Rights Movement in the 1950s was more than a half century in the future.
When Barack Obama was elected President of the United States, there were many African Americans of all ages who expressed the view that they had thought they’d not see a black man elected as President in their lifetimes. Particularly poignant were the faces and stories of the men and women who had fought so hard (and non-violently) in the 1950s to bring genuine equality to America. Many of them were in their sixties and seventies, and it was touching to see their dream realized in their lifetime.
How much more amazing and touching it was to see Ms. Baines comments about the election of the President. Baines celebrated her birthday at the nursing home April 6 with music, two cakes and a letter from President Barack Obama, whom she voted for in November. Local newscasts had shown her when she cast her ballot. Baines, who is black, said she backed him "because he's for the colored." She said she never thought she would live to see a black man become president.
Like so many African Americans on election eve, Ms. Baines had hoped to live to see a black man elected President, but doubted that she would. When she was born, President Cleveland was the 24th President. Barack Obama is the 44th President. Ms. Baines had seen twenty men elected and serve before finally getting her wish. Of course, she saw so many other amazing changes in her time that it is tough to imagine – radio, television, space travel, two wars to end all wars, the nuclear era, mass production, all modern technology…the list is mind boggling. Still, I doubt that there was a more meaningful and powerful change in her lifetime than living long enough to see an African American elected President.
Ms. Baines once joked that she won the genetic lottery to achieve her age. I think she also won the political lottery in living long enough to vote for, and see elected, and African American President.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Talk About Fresh Blood in Office
This article about an eighteen year old recent high school graduate running for city council in Pocatello, Idaho suggests one good way to bring fresh blood into politics.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Why the Slippery Slope Argument is Not Always Wrong
For years we’ve heard the sneering directed at the ‘slippery slope’ argument made by the NRA that they must contend every perceived infringement of what they view as a Second Amendment guarantee of the right to keep and bear arms or the first chink in the armor would simply be a beachhead to further restrictions and ultimately to a complete elimination of the private gun ownership. Pragmatists have often argued that the NRA could make minor concessions in situations where the perceived infringement of gun rights were in the public good and would not harm legal gun owners. This slippery slope view was a constant source of derision by many, who saw it as a silly and inflexible argument – a revealing sign that the NRA was extreme and unwilling to be reasonable in the gun debate.
Over the last few years I have begun to wonder if the slippery slope was, after all, more prescient as an analysis than I’d thought. When the governments at all levels began to take action against smoking to protect people who were being exposed to second-hand smoke, that seemed a good and proper thing. It was harmful to them, in whatever degree, and it seemed appropriate to ensure that people who did not wish to be exposed to smoke would not be forced to do so in public places. Next, however, we began to see specific taxes directed at penalizing people who smoked and I began to wonder “Who gets to decide which behaviors our society will target, and restrict the individual right to eat, drink, drive, smoke, exercise or not exercise, etc., as he or she sees fit. Where does the public or government point of view begin to supersede the individual person’s choices for their own behavior and lifestyle? Who gets to decide what free citizens are allowed to do with their own bodies?
Well, the answers are beginning to seem to me to argue that the slippery slope view was more correct than I had believed. Legislatures have begun debating financial penalties (read: new taxes), criminal penalties and product restrictions when those government elements reach a decision that those substances, behaviors or activities are ‘wrong’ or ‘harmful’.
Should Big Macs be taxed at say, $5 a piece, because too many will promote obesity and heart disease? How about Twinkies? Or perhaps just the deep fried Twinkies at the fair? Obesity? Should we refuse to provide expensive treatment for adult-onset diabetes because a person’s behavior contributes to the contraction of the disease? Should we ban advertising for foods or other products that some legislator or mayor or governor thinks adversely affects this amorphous ‘public good’? Some argue that the tax would be a constant reminder to people that what they were buying wasn’t ‘good for them’. Maybe I should be allowed three days in a county jail to re-think my choices if I don’t document that I got at least twenty minutes of aerobic exercise three times each week. After all, exercise is good, right? And if I don’t do it then it would clearly be in my best interests to do whatever is needed to ‘help’ me do what is best for me. What if, like dear old Dom Delouise, food makes one happy? Perhaps we should amend the Declaration to say “the pursuit of happiness (if said pursuit includes only behaviors which are deemed ‘healthy’ by appropriate authorities). Even if a person is making poor choices, is it the role of government to intervene? Should we be made to buy food with cards that track the items we buy and refuse to allow us to go over some caloric, or fat content value that has been determined by the government? Or maybe we should create devices to attach to the naughty bits and be required to gain approval before engaging in ‘adult behavior’ with a partner. That way, if both partners didn’t have recent and approved STD results on file, a jolt (note that I am assuming an unpleasant and deterrent jolt) would be issued to the bits of the party not approved for whatever form of intimate congress. In fact, when you think about it, things that were far-fetched a decade ago are actually being considered now. Is that not a slippery slope? Perhaps we could put controls on the car that refuse to start the vehicle if the person in the drivers seat hasn’t had a minimum of six hours of REM or deeper sleep – that would end the scourge of drowsy driving, right?
I could go on and on, and looking up I think I have. But I am definitely beginning to wonder if the slippery slope is in fact the best logical argument for the incredibly rapidly expanding intrusion of government into personal, private lives and choices. What worries me more and more each day are these questions, and the variety of proposals I am reading and hearing about almost every day on the news:
- Who decides what is best for me? When the city/county/state/federal government needs new tax revenues will they come up with a new way to ‘help’ me and all Americans by taxing me – say a 50% excise tax on processed meats, which would help me to avoid the hot dog at the baseball game, or fund the latest underfunded stimulus package item? Isn’t it a public service when I am stupid and self-destructive with a Hebrew National in one hand and a Red Hook in the other at the ballpark? Taxing me for that behavior, rather than putting me in the corner to “think about what I have done”…is that responsible parenting by my new parent government entities of all levels?
“Thank you sir, may I have another?”
- What means are appropriate to ‘help’ me do what is best for me? Taxes? Fines? Jail time? Public humiliation (a la prostitute patrons whose names are published)?
- What if I am not instilling properly healthful habits in my kids? Say junior comes in at 20 pounds overweight, should the tax deduction I get for him be withdrawn? Or maybe we should both have to take classes on parenting and growing up appropriately?
- Am I crazy in wondering if this sort of tax-the-behavior-that- costs-money-in-health-care reasoning might one day lead to taxing people who reproduce if they have genes that increase the risk of increasing health care costs?
- If in fact, research proves that caloric restriction over a lifespan not only extends life expectancy meaningfully, but reduces health care costs as well, would it be reasonable for government to restrict calories? Or tax overeating even when it did not produce overweight? Or might we want to then encourage overeating so that we wouldn’t have the costs of people living longer?
The slippery slope reasoning seems to be a slippery slope itself, and I have now officially given myself a headache. Which makes me wonder: might we tax blogs that cause stress, headache, anger, irritation or anxiety? After all, those things all drive up health care costs.
As always, the problem with regulation is less about the idea of regulating, and much more about who does it, how they do it and what means are allowed. I would once have thought these things stupid and extreme thoughts. But then, they weren’t in the Congressional Record and every major newspaper then. I disliked the Nanny State talk almost as much as the slippery slope argument – thinking them sort of paranoid. The events of recent years are making me wonder whether the folks warning about both have been on to something all along.
Links:
Plain drinks are fine, all that flavored stuff is wrong, wrong, wrong.
http://www.freemarketproject.org/articles/2009/20090527121042.aspx
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/Content/Article.aspx?rsrcid=49658
(Do a couple of quick Google searches and you’ll be amazed at how many proposals there are right now. I was.)
PS---Isn’t this the same sort of argument that was made early in the AIDS epidemic? Didn’t we hear that money shouldn’t be wasted finding cures for a disease that people ‘brought on themselves’?
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Perhaps Darwin was Wrong…
If you like, watch all the comments in this video, they are a hoot. But please don’t miss the first speaker. I’d be happy to send a buck to the first person who can come up with any reasonable explanation of her comments. And all you slave-holders back east? We’re on to you now!
A Bad Economy, Complex Problems, Plummeting Polls
President Bush only had high numbers when the nation was rallying after attack. President Obama has managed to get less than six months into his first term before his numbers dropped below fifty percent. I wonder if a President will ever again have high approval for more than a fraction of his term? Why doesn’t anyone care that Congress has ratings far lower than either President? Can anyone govern in the polarized polling environment today? How is anyone supposed to lead when difficult responses to no-win situations are called for? It doesn’t matter all that much what the response is, there will soon be polls showing that most of us don’t like it. I can see why kings and emperors often justified themselves as having only one seal of approval- the Divine approval. Having to lead our society in this time with polls thrice a day and hoards parsing every word to catch one in a faux pas…man, who would WANT to be President now?
Friday, July 03, 2009
Moral Courage?
Okay, so I realize that using the phrase ”moral courage” to describe the act of a person giving the finger to another does not at first blush seem to be a very clever or deep example of moral courage. I invite you to look again.
Am I right or am I right? From Punditkitchen.com
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Echoes of Past Complaints
One of the many issues over which the Bush Administration was criticized heavily (and probably rightly so) for was suppressing information and opinions in the EPA whish disagreed with the administration’s policy. That’s okay in many management settings, but I hate to see it when what is being curtailed is not merely points of view in conflict with chosen policy, but scientific discussion and debate. In the case of the Bush Administration it seems clear that data which did not support the administration's skepticism of global warming and human-based causes of warming. Now it seems that the Obama Administration is doing the same thing, albeit the data being suppressed is in conflict with the administration’s view that earth is warming and human activity is driving it. At the EPA, a 38 year veteran researcher concluded that the earth is probably not warming and may actually be cooling. He also wrote that it is probably not necessary to regulate carbon dioxide emissions at this point. He actually sees signs that earth is cooling recently and may be back to mid-20th century levels. You can read more about the censoring of his report and the details of its’ content here: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10274412-38.html
If it is bad for one administration to suppress research that opposes its’ policies, it is bad for all administrations to do so. Far better to consider and reply to such research than just to try and quash it – which seldom works anyway.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Monday, November 03, 2008
Good Advice on Tax Policy
"A nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to pull himself up by the handles."
--Winston Churchill
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Sunday Prediction: Fascinating Endgame Looks to Be Drawing to a Close - Basic Blue is IN
Unless some big surprise jumps out at us tomorrow for a late Halloween trick, the polls in the last 36 hours indicate to me that the late surge by Senator McCain likely reached its high water mark on Thursday evening-Friday morning. With a number of polls reporting increasing leads by Obama since Friday, it appears that the election will go to Obama. My best guess at this point is that the lead is somewhere in the five-to-seven point range, and with up to thirty percent of voters already having voted, the lead is effectively a bit larger than that. Absent some real game-changer Sunday night or Monday morning it looks to be an Obama victory waiting to happen. Below are my current best guess estimates for the electoral college - both the most likely outcome as of today's poll data, and the best-case scenario for a McCain upset. You'll note the big change in the best-case scenario for a McCain upset since my last maps were posted. There is now pretty much only one way for him to win, and the results this weekend have him losing ground in several key states. No doubt the Libby Dole debacle wasn't music to McCain's ears - it was drag he didn't need.
McCain Best Case
Likely Outcome as of 11/2/2008
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Obama Appears to be Consolidating the Lead
After seeing a number of polls move closer recently, including the Zogby single-day polling which had McCain actually leading, the single-day and trend polls today look to be telling a different story. For the first time, the Gallup extended and traditional polls are indicating a similar margin - twelve points for Senator Obama. The Gallup traditional was one of the first polls to set tongues wagging when it put Senator McCain within two percent of Obama last week. Rasmussen continues to have Obama over fifty-one percent and today's Zogby poll, which puts Obama up five plus percent, with most of the other polls which reported trends today showing the race at least five percent apart.
We have been speculating a great deal about how the late-breaking independent voters would move. Would they ultimately be comfortable with Senator Obama, or would tax and terror concerns steer them toward the more experienced man? Of course, we still won't know the answer for three or so days, but the sudden widening of the polls which had been showing a McCain surge may in fact be our early warning that independents are indeed choosing Obama. In fact, since the Thursday version of Rasmussen, the Wednesday Gallup traditional and the Friday Zogby single-day and Opinion Dynamics polls were released, each subsequent poll has trended down for McCain. Is November 1 the day the late breakers began to reach their tipping point and found themselves tipping toward Senator Obama? Time will tell, and certainly many of the underlying possibilities discussed over the past few days in this blog are still possible factors. But as of today, I don't see any data that suggests anything other than this: Obama widened his poll lead today. McCain lost ground. His brief foray above 45% - which has been nearly a hard ceiling for him - ended with the Zogby single-day results, and in combination with a gentle uptick by Obama the race seems now to be contested in the 5-10% Obama lead range. That's probably too large a number for McCain to overtake - especially in light of the number of early voters. All of the interesting possibilities and trends below the candidate preference line are really only interesting if the race is at four percent or less. Five at the outside. Upsets have happened even when the leader went into the last weekend with an eight point lead. But an eight-point lead in 1980 probably translates to a four or five point lead today, with instant information, many more polls and as many as a quarter of voters casting early ballots.
We'll see what the numbers look like tomorrow, but if I were an accountant tonight, I'd advise McCain to return some of that Red Bull I suggested last night. Chances are he'll be wanting some warm milk instead. Stay tuned tomorrow to see if we must remake our impressions yet again!
Obama's New Attack on Those Who Don't Want Higher Taxes: ‘Selfishness’
From the ABC News blog:
Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper
October 31, 2008 10:58 AM
On the stump this week, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pushed back against Sen. John McCain's description of his tax policies.
"The reason that we want to do this, change our tax code, is not because I have anything against the rich," Obama said in Sarasota, Fla., yesterday. "I love rich people! I want all of you to be rich. Go for it. That’s the American dream, that’s the American way, that’s terrific.
"The point is, though, that -- and it’s not just charity, it’s not just that I want to help the middle class and working people who are trying to get in the middle class -- it’s that when we actually make sure that everybody’s got a shot – when young people can all go to college, when everybody’s got decent health care, when everybody’s got a little more money at the end of the month – then guess what? Everybody starts spending that money, they decide maybe I can afford a new car, maybe I can afford a computer for my child. They can buy the products and services that businesses are selling and everybody is better off. All boats rise. That’s what happened in the 1990s, that’s what we need to restore. And that’s what I’m gonna do as president of the United States of America.
"John McCain and Sarah Palin they call this socialistic," Obama continued. "You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness."
It's unclear if this was a nod to the Ayn Rand book "The Virtue of Selfishness," with all that the invocation of Rand implies.
It would seem to be, given the themes of Rand's work, what happens when independent achievers are demonized.
Which would fit with this description of those who want to keep their hard-earned tax dollars as "selfish."
Atlas may not be shrugging, but Obama is.
Friday, October 31, 2008
ZOGBY: McCain leads in Single Day Poll 48-47
If you have been watching the polls, there are a group of them that have shown McCain advancing, sometimes within the margin of error. I have postulated that if the trend continued as it had been over the past week we might begin to see McCain leading in some polls by the weekend.
Over the three day period ending on Halloween, the Obama lead is unchanged from our report yesterday. But looking at just the polling responses for one day, today, Senator McCain has actually moved ahead of Senator Obama by one percentage point. This is within the margin of error but is significant nonetheless simply because it shows McCain with a lead. I refer you to Obama's rather terse interaction with reporters today and his exhortations with particular vehemence to campaign workers not to let up at all as telling hints about the impression the polls are giving him.
Earlier today, Dick Morris was heard to say that he doesn't believe there are many undecided voters left at all. Instead, he said, there are a number of voters who are not sold, or perhaps don't like Obama as a candidate, and will end up voting for McCain but simply don't want to tell anyone. If you think about the twenty or so percent of people who might vote for Bush if he were eligible for a third term, how vocal are they about their support? It does seem to have some ring of truth that these are stealth supporters. And in places where supporting McCain is viewed as supporting Bush, I can see some people choosing to 'go with the flow' with pollsters but voting privately as they really feel. Add to that the possibility of some level of Bradley effect - where people don't want to appear racist - and perhaps some of the poll results can be explained. On the other hand, internal numbers show McCain making huge gains with blue collar families, white Catholics and even among the 21-30 age group. Obama's lead has shrunk in half among independents since last week. So, there are many possible causes for the McCain surge in the polls - assuming you're not just reading the New York Times poll and discounting the 90% of polls that show the race getting closer.
The way I see it, the underlying numbers show a close race getting closer. The candidate preference numbers show a close race - whether it is a five point lead for Obama or even a 1 point McCain advantage. The murkiness of several drivers of voter opinion in this particular election make reading the tea leaves more difficult than usual, but there is no doubt in my mind right now that the one thing we can tell from the leaves we see is that the race is very close - closer than many will allow themselves to believe. Close enough that one candidate can't stop mentioning the polls and one can't stop telling supporters that the polls don't matter but work hard and don't let up. For me, this is perhaps the most telling clue to what the polls are really predicting: the way the two candidates are talking about them.
Poll Volatility and Undecided Voters: More Uncommitted Voters than Usual?
Why is there so much disparity between the polls this year? Some have sought to explain it with methodology, and I believe that to be a big part of the reason. What else could be driving as much as ten points difference from one poll to another? There has been some discussion between various pollsters that the financial crisis may have delayed many people in making a firm choice in the race for president. The proportion of undecided voters has remained fairly steady over the past few weeks, yet the numbers for each candidate has moved up and down by fairly large numbers. Some have said that there is a larger pool than normal of voters that are leaning and express a preference, but are not firmly committed to a candidate. In this scenario, perhaps seven or eight percent of voters will reach their conclusion over the weekend and Monday. If this means that as many as six percent will decide over the weekend, and possibly two or three percent of each candidate's supporters may re-evaluate their choice, then the curve of potential outcomes can include a McCain victory as well as a ten point Obama win.
Race Widens in Obama's Favor?
The race for President has been tightening according to several polls including Mason Dixon, IBD, Opinion Dynamics and especially the Gallup Traditional poll. This morning's reports, however, seem to suggest that Senator Barack Obama may be seeing some breathing room opening between himself and Senator McCain. Several of the polls that had the candidates between three and four points have moved to five and six point gaps, with the Gallup Traditional now an eight point lead for Obama. Though the local polls in a number of the most contested states show McCain leading or tied, this new move by Obama may not yet be reflected in them.
Though all of the aspects of the race discussed in previous posts may be factors (and there is no way to know how much of a factor any or all of them may be), the likelihood that any or a combination of them could produce an upset win for McCain will reduce dramatically if the polls widen from four or five percent. This is especially true in terms of early voting, as the nearly thirty percent of voters who will vote prior to November 4 reduce the likelihood of a late change of mind among independents. Below is the trend line from Gallup Traditional.
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Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.
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