With Swine Flu cases continuing to surprise epidemiologists by spreading during the normally dormant summer months, no one is quite sure what to expect this fall. Will the disease re-emerge from a host population in a more virulent form that lodges deeper in the respiratory tract, as the more deadly pandemic flu strains of the past century have done, or is it simply mutating in minor steps while in circulation during this abnormal summer pattern? There is substantial debate, and some experts are definitely concerned about what the fall may bring. With that in mind, I thought I’d offer this bit of information about treatments for people already infected with H1N1.
Showing posts with label pandemic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pandemic. Show all posts
Monday, July 27, 2009
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Tracking the Swine Flu
I have to admit that it really frosts me when people are flippant about the possibility of pandemic flu. As I see it, either we are very fortunate and the concern raised by a new strain is not borne out and the disease does not become deadly, or hundreds of thousands – even millions die.
I hear people calling ‘hype’ and scoffing all around us. Why? Because people just don’t know the pattern that these pandemics follow. They don’t always become deadly, but there is no way to know in advance which ones will do so. There is a pattern that they follow, and very often when the strain emerges it is not deadly. But after the first season, when the virus mutates again, it can then become a killer. So, we hear people say “It's all hype”, until the secondary mutations happen and the new strain emerges in more virulent form and kill tens of millions. And then of course, if we don't have stockpiles and research in hand, we will immediately have people claiming that the government's lack of preparation and stockpiling was itself a conspiracy and/or pure negligence.
For at least the past 400 years, epidemics resembling influenza have been recorded. In the twentieth century alone, we have seen the 1918 “Spanish Flu” epidemic (20 million dead), the 1957 or 1968 influenza outbreaks 1 million dead each, and there have been others –not to mention major epidemics in 1580, 1781, 1831.
Simply put, we hear people scoff and laugh at what they see as hype, but it is only hype until that cycle where the disease happens to become virulent. Why do people experience fear? Why do the CDC, WHO, etc., raise awareness, and why does the media join in? Plainly put, if this new strain happens to be (or become over the summer) one that kills half the people who contract it, then it will be the biggest story, the biggest disaster, the most devastating economic blow...well, short of a nuclear event. The health authorities, the media, the planners cannot know immediately what the current form of the H1N1, or the next mutation will do, and simple common sense says 'take precautions until we have information'. President Ford has been scoffed at and called an idiot because he stockpiled, immunized and alerted the public about a strain that proved not to be deadly. Had it been as deadly as the 1918 flu Ford might have been called a hero for preparing as best he could. It is not intellectually honest to evaluate someone's actions only by how a factor they cannot know (is this one deadly?) later plays out.
This site is great for tracking the virus. I hope this latest new virus does not use the summer in animal reserve hosts to mutate yet again, and perhaps to become a deadly pandemic. If so, the least sad thing about it will be to look back at all the things written and said now about ‘hype’. The tables will be turned then, and the consequences terrible. But whether it is this virus, or another in the future, another deadly event is overdue, and very likely it will be greeted by many chanting ‘hype’.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Swine Flu Reaches Washington State
State Health Officials announced tonight that six cases believed to be the H1N1 Swine Flu have occurred in Washington. The cases include three in Seattle, two in Snohomish County and one in Spokane County. The patients are a boy who attends Madrona Elementary School, 33-year-old Seattle physician, and a man in his mid-twenties, all in Seattle; a six-year-old boy and a woman in her early forties have been found in Snohomish County. The case in Spokane was identified only as an adult male.
School Districts are monitoring the situation and will send announcements home if any school closures occur.
The best protective measures for people are to avoid contact with others who have the flu, and to practice good hygiene throughout the day – especially washing the hands often (sanitizers are also effective). Swine flu is much milder than the avian flu varieties that have produced such concern in recent years. Swine flu, however, is much easier to catch than avian flu. It can be spread through coughs, sneezes and even infected surfaces.
There are two drugs – both antiviral agents – that appear to be effective against swine flu. The drugs are Tamiflu and Relenza. King County currently has 190,000 doses of Tamiflu which can be used to treat people infected with or exposed to swine flu. The US Department of Health and Human Services is also sending another 260,000 courses of Tamiflu from the federal stockpile, released today.
Some links with good planning information and a more complete summary of tonight’s news conference by Washington State officials:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009148457_webflucases29.html
Planning for Your Family in a Pandemic
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/405705_waswine30.html?source=rss
http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/preparedness/pandemicflu.aspx
WHO Raises Pandemic Flu Alert Level to Phase 5
“GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.”
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE”
CDC Swine Flu Press Briefing – April 28, 2009
Some excerpts from today’s CDC swine flu briefing by Dr. Richard Besser of the CDC:
“There are 64 confirmed cases in the United States in five states. 45 in New York, one in Ohio, two in Kansas, six in Texas and ten in California. What we… have been seeing (in the U.S.)so far, has been milder, has been less severe than what has been reported out of Mexico. There have now been five hospitalized cases. The incubation period in the United States appears to be about two to seven days, which is typical for what you see with an influenza virus.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.
Posts
