Beginning just two days ago a trend began that seems to indicate that the gap between Barrack Obama and John McCain is shrinking. Zogby released the latest poll (October 19), with Obama leading McCain by just 2.7% - within the 2.9 % margin of error. This follows the Gallup traditional voters poll, which was the first to show this recent trend.
In the battleground states, the most recent poll shows Obama's lead shrinking by one-fifth (down 1% from 5% to 4%) since last week, and that the bulk of the uptick for McCain is coming from the still-undecided voters. The total undecided voter group dropped by 1%, about the gain McCain is posting.
The Rasmussen poll shows Obama holding a fairly steady five point lead, and that while most Americans feel that tax cuts are the most important thing that can be done to help the economy, many also feel that raising taxes on 'the rich' is not a bad idea.
So, if the race ended today? The oddsmakers line has Obama at 83% probability of winning. My questions:
Will McCain continue to trend upward?
Will undecided voters feel comfortable with what they know of Senator Obama as they near the election day and reach their 'tipping point'?
Will there be any Bradley effect?
For someone very tired of the coarse, abrasive and intentionally misleading campaign, looking at the many elements of public opinion and perspective is a welcome refuge from the mudslinging.
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