Friday, July 31, 2009

Mariners Active at the Non-Waiver Trade Deadline

In some ways the Mariners made it easier on GM Jack Zduriencik with blowout losses to Cleveland in three straight home games, plus the first game of the Toronto series.  Now 8 games back, the team had given the GM an out if he decided to become a ‘seller’ – to trade mature talent on the team for prospects or young players with good upside, and build for the future. 

That’s not what has happened, though.  Zduriencik managed to improve the team for next year while at the same time coming very near to holding his own for this season.    First, he managed to pick up Jack Wilson from the Pirates, where he’s been an excellent fielding shortstop with respectable offensive production to boot.  Much as I like Ronnie Cedeno (his attitude and effort, but not so much the batting average that makes the Mendoza line seem lofty), the player Zduriencik traded along with three lower minor league pitchers and Jeff Clement, Wilson is a better shortstop and a career .270 hitter, and will make the M’s better when he walks on the diamond.  From the Mariners point of view, Clement has been a man without a home since he injured his knee and Adam Moore’s star has risen as the M’s catcher of the future.

He has moved Betancourt – an undisciplined player at the plate and in the field – as well as Vladimir Balentien, who has yet to become the sort of hitter the Mariners had hoped for, and certainly not the sort that justifies keeping his mediocre-at-best glove in the lineup.  And when he traded Washburn – knowing that even if Wash wanted to re-sign, with Scot Boas as his agent it is likely he’d still go on the market as a free agent – he managed to bring in both an excellent pitching prospect for the future and a good pitcher to step into the rotation and burn some innings this season.   

In every trade thus far, the Mariners new GM has managed to both improve the club for the future  AND keep the team competitive this season.  And, though I hate to pile on, beat a dead horse, etc., I am compelled to point out that the Mariners prior GM seldom managed to do either – let alone both. 

Mariners Players Traded                              Players Received

Jarrod Washburn                                        Luke French

                                                                 Mauricio Robles

 

Vladimir Balentien                                      Robert Manuel

 

Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Clement,                      Jack Wilson

Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin,                         Ian Snell

Nathan Adcock

Isn’t it refreshing to feel that the team is getting better for the future, and still competitive for today? 

Monday, July 27, 2009

CDC Recommendations for antiviral treatment of people already infected with H1N1 Swine Flu

With Swine Flu cases continuing to surprise epidemiologists by spreading during the normally dormant summer months, no one is quite sure what to expect this fall.  Will the disease re-emerge from a host population in a more virulent form that lodges deeper in the respiratory tract, as the more deadly pandemic flu strains of the past century have done, or is it simply mutating in minor steps while in circulation during this abnormal summer pattern?  There is substantial debate, and some experts are definitely concerned about what the fall may bring.  With that in mind, I thought I’d offer this bit of information about treatments for people already infected with H1N1. 

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/recommendations.htm

Why the Slippery Slope Argument is Not Always Wrong

For years we’ve heard the sneering directed at the ‘slippery slope’ argument made by the NRA that they must contend every perceived infringement of what they view as a Second Amendment guarantee of the right to keep and bear arms or the first chink in the armor would simply be a beachhead to further restrictions and ultimately to a complete elimination of the private gun ownership.  Pragmatists have often argued that the NRA could make minor concessions in situations where the perceived infringement of gun rights were in the public good and would not harm legal gun owners.  This slippery slope view was a constant source of derision by many, who saw it as a silly and inflexible argument – a revealing sign that the NRA was extreme and unwilling to be reasonable in the gun debate.

Over the last few years I have begun to wonder if the slippery slope was, after all, more prescient as an analysis than I’d thought.  When the governments at all levels began to take action against smoking to protect people who were being exposed to second-hand smoke, that seemed a good and proper thing.  It was harmful to them, in whatever degree, and it seemed appropriate to ensure that people who did not wish to be exposed to smoke would not be forced to do so in public places.  Next, however, we began to see specific taxes directed at penalizing people who smoked and I began to wonder “Who gets to decide which behaviors our society will target, and restrict the individual right to eat, drink, drive, smoke, exercise or not exercise, etc., as he or she sees fit.  Where does the public or government point of view begin to supersede the individual person’s choices for their own behavior and lifestyle?  Who gets to decide what free citizens are allowed to do with their own bodies? 

Well, the answers are beginning to seem to me to argue that the slippery slope view was more correct than I had believed.  Legislatures have begun debating financial penalties (read: new taxes), criminal penalties and product restrictions when those government elements reach a decision that those substances, behaviors or activities are ‘wrong’ or ‘harmful’. 

Should Big Macs be taxed at say, $5 a piece, because too many will promote obesity and heart disease?  How about Twinkies?  Or perhaps just the deep fried Twinkies at the fair?  Obesity?  Should we refuse to provide expensive treatment for adult-onset diabetes because a person’s behavior contributes to the contraction of the disease?  Should we ban advertising for foods or other products that some legislator or mayor or governor thinks adversely affects this amorphous ‘public good’?  Some argue that the tax would be a constant reminder to people that what they were buying wasn’t ‘good for them’.  Maybe I should be allowed three days in a county jail to re-think my choices if I don’t document that I got at least twenty minutes of aerobic exercise three times each week.  After all,  exercise is good, right?  And if I don’t do it then it would clearly be in my best interests to do whatever is needed to ‘help’ me do what is best for me.  What if, like dear old Dom Delouise, food makes one happy?  Perhaps we should amend the Declaration to say “the pursuit of happiness (if said pursuit includes only behaviors which are deemed ‘healthy’ by appropriate authorities).  Even if a person is making poor choices, is it the role of government to intervene?  Should we be made to buy food with cards that track the items we buy and refuse to allow us to go over some caloric, or fat content value that has been determined by the government?  Or maybe we should create devices to attach to the naughty bits and be required to gain approval before engaging in ‘adult behavior’ with a partner.  That way, if both partners didn’t have recent and approved STD results on file, a jolt (note that I am assuming an unpleasant and deterrent jolt) would be issued to the bits of the party not approved for whatever form of intimate congress.  In fact, when you think about it, things that were far-fetched a decade ago are actually being considered now.  Is that not a slippery slope?  Perhaps we could put controls on the car that refuse to start the vehicle if the person in the drivers seat hasn’t had a minimum of six hours of REM or deeper sleep – that would end the scourge of drowsy driving, right? 

I could go on and on, and looking up I think I have.  But I am definitely beginning to wonder if the slippery slope is in fact the best logical argument for the incredibly rapidly expanding intrusion of government into personal, private lives and choices.  What worries me more and more each day are these questions, and the variety of proposals I am reading and hearing about almost every day on the news:

  • Who decides what is best for me?  When the city/county/state/federal government needs new tax revenues will they come up with a new way to ‘help’ me and all Americans by taxing me – say a 50% excise tax on processed meats, which would help me to avoid the hot dog at the baseball game, or fund the latest underfunded stimulus package item?  Isn’t it a public service when I am stupid and self-destructive with a Hebrew National in one hand and a Red Hook in the other at the ballpark?  Taxing me for that behavior, rather than putting me in the corner to “think about what I have done”…is that responsible parenting by my new parent government entities of all levels? 

“Thank you sir, may I have another?”

  • What means are appropriate to ‘help’ me do what is best for me?  Taxes?  Fines? Jail time?  Public humiliation (a la prostitute patrons whose names are published)? 
  • What if I am not instilling properly healthful habits in my kids?  Say junior comes in at 20 pounds overweight, should the tax deduction I get for him be withdrawn?  Or maybe we should both have to take classes on parenting and growing up appropriately?
  • Am I crazy in wondering if this sort of tax-the-behavior-that- costs-money-in-health-care reasoning might one day lead to taxing people who reproduce if they have genes that increase the risk of increasing health care costs? 
  • If in fact, research proves that caloric restriction over a lifespan not only extends life expectancy meaningfully, but reduces health care costs as well, would it be reasonable for government to restrict calories?  Or tax overeating even when it did not produce overweight?  Or might we want to then encourage overeating so that we wouldn’t have the costs of people living longer?

The slippery slope reasoning seems to be a slippery slope itself, and I have now officially given myself a headache.  Which makes me wonder:  might we tax blogs that cause stress, headache, anger, irritation or anxiety?  After all, those things all drive up health care costs.

As always, the problem with regulation is less about the idea of regulating, and much more about who does it, how they do it and what means are allowed.  I would once have thought these things stupid and extreme thoughts.  But then, they weren’t in the Congressional Record and every major newspaper then.  I disliked the Nanny State talk almost as much as the slippery slope argument – thinking them sort of paranoid.  The events of recent years are making me wonder whether the folks warning about both have been on to something all along.

Links:

Taxing cosmetic surgery - is it because it is vain, or because rick people don't need to be prettier than the rest of us?

Plain drinks are fine, all that flavored stuff is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Incentives for 'healthy behavior' - will your salary be tied to your weight, exercise habits, sufficient sleep, eating habits...perhaps good blood pressure or cholesterol numbers?

http://www.freemarketproject.org/articles/2009/20090527121042.aspx

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/nassau-proposes-2-percent-fast-food-tax-for-next-year-1.1258316

http://www.cnsnews.com/public/Content/Article.aspx?rsrcid=49658

(Do a couple of quick Google searches and you’ll be amazed at how many proposals there are right now.  I was.)

PS---Isn’t this the same sort of argument that was made early in the AIDS epidemic?  Didn’t we hear that money shouldn’t be wasted finding cures for a disease that people ‘brought on themselves’? 

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Perhaps Darwin was Wrong…

If you like, watch all the comments in this video, they are a hoot.  But please don’t miss the first speaker.  I’d be happy to send a buck to the first person who can come up with any reasonable explanation of her comments.  And all you slave-holders back east?  We’re on to you now!

A Bad Economy, Complex Problems, Plummeting Polls

President Bush only had high numbers when the nation was rallying after attack.  President Obama has managed to get less than six months into his first term before his numbers dropped below fifty percent.  I wonder if a President will ever again have high approval for more than a fraction of his term?  Why doesn’t anyone care that Congress has ratings far lower than either President?  Can anyone govern in the polarized polling environment today?  How is anyone supposed to lead when difficult responses to no-win situations are called for?  It doesn’t matter all that much what the response is, there will soon be polls showing that most of us don’t like it.  I can see why kings and emperors often justified themselves as having only one seal of approval- the Divine approval.  Having to lead our society in this time with polls thrice a day and hoards parsing every word to catch one in a faux pas…man, who would WANT to be President now? 

Friday, July 17, 2009

Friday at the Open Championship

The weather has indeed changed today, with some overnight moisture and winds picking up a bit (but not bad by Scottish standards).  This has pushed back against the driving average distances and accuracy with more fairways missed and the average drive about 15 yards shorter.  Steve Marino has moved into the lead at six under while Miguel Angel Jimenez has dropped back to –3.  Tom Watson was at one point +5 for his round today, but has since birdied numbers 9, 11 and 16 to get back to just one over for his round through 16 and one off the leader at –4 for the tournament.  Mark O’Meara blew up to a +7 score today, but may still make the cut at +4 for the tournament.  Mark Calcavecchia is –1 for the day and –4 for the tournament in a tie for second with Tom Watson.  So, some of the over 40 crowd came back to earth on Day 2, but at least a couple are still at the top of the board.  Oh, and Daly?  He’s +2 for the day, even par for the tournament so it looks like he’ll be around for the weekend. 

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Watson Turns Back the Clock

At age 59, and some 32 years after his victory at the Turnberry course, Tom Watson shot a five under par 65 to set the pace today at the Open Championships.  With a number of players still on the course, it is possible that there will be a lower total posted for the day, but probably not a more memorable round.  Watson played nearly flawlessly in his opening round, with five birdies, thirteen pars and no bogies.  Watson hit twelve of fourteen fairways,  fifteen of eighteen greens in regulation and putted well, requiring just one putt on eight greens and two putts on ten greens.  In fact, Watson compared favorably with the field to this point (3:30 PM British Summer Time) in nearly every category:

this player                                                                                field average

driving distance (yards)
299                                                                                                  287.92

fairways hit
12 /14                                                                                            8.68 / 14

greens in regulation (gir)
15                                                                                                       1.65

putts per round
28                                                                                                      30.86

sand saves
0 / 1                                                                                              0.52 / 1.02

I do enjoy it when older players in any sport shake off the effects of age and even for a while return to the form they held in younger days: 

  • Nolan Ryan throwing his seventh no-hitter - and striking out sixteen batters - on fan appreciation night at age 44 (just one year after throwing his sixth no-hitter)
  • Jimmy Connors run to the US Open semifinals at the age of 39. On his birthday, he defeated 24-year-old Aaron Krickstein, coming back from a 2–5 deficit in the final set before finally bowing in a semifinal to the reigning French Open champion, Jim Courier.
  • Jack Nicklaus’s sixth win at the Masters (at age 46) came with a great late charge and is symbolized by an amazing shot at the par three sixteenth.  After hitting the ball, Nicklaus quickly bent over to pick up his tee, and never did watch the ball in flight.  His son, caddying for Nicklaus, uttered an encouragement for the ball to “be good” – to which his father replied, “It is.”
  • Hale Irwin wining the US Open at 45.
  • John Elway finally getting that Super Bowl win at age 38
  • Jamie Moyer helping the Phillies in their run to the playoffs and World Series at age 45

There are many more, and I do love it when the athletes who are past their physical prime manage to set aside the effects of age for a time and give us a memorable round, or run, or even sometimes that big win or no-hitter.  There’s something affirming in these feats that seems to say that we all might have our best within us yet, no matter our age.  And who doesn’t want to be reminder of that, now and then?

To follow the Open Championship Leaderboard go here:  2009 Open Championship Turnberry Leaderboard

Friday, July 03, 2009

Moral Courage?

Okay, so I realize that using the phrase ”moral courage” to describe the act of a person giving the finger to another does not at first blush seem to be a very clever or deep example of moral courage.  I invite you to look again. 

Balls of Steel

Am I right or am I right?  From Punditkitchen.com

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Echoes of Past Complaints

One of the many issues over which the Bush Administration was criticized heavily (and probably rightly so) for was suppressing information and opinions in the EPA whish disagreed with the administration’s policy.  That’s okay in many management settings, but I hate to see it when what is being curtailed is not merely points of view in conflict with chosen policy, but scientific discussion and debate.  In the case of the Bush Administration it seems clear that data which did  not support the administration's skepticism of global warming and human-based causes of warming.  Now it seems that the Obama Administration is doing the same thing, albeit the data being suppressed is in conflict with the administration’s view that earth is warming and human activity is driving it.  At the EPA, a 38 year veteran researcher concluded that the earth is probably not warming and may actually be cooling.  He also wrote that it is probably not necessary to regulate carbon dioxide emissions at this point.  He actually sees signs that earth is cooling recently and may be back to mid-20th century levels.  You can read more about the censoring of his report and the details of its’ content here:  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10274412-38.html

If it is bad for one administration to suppress research that opposes its’ policies, it is bad for all administrations to do so.  Far better to consider and reply to such research than just to try and quash it – which seldom works anyway.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

FINALLY! M’s Washburn Gets a Little Help from His Friends

Jarrod Washburn has worked hard over the last offseason to perfect his changeup, and the results have been impressive.  He is throwing it far more often (sometimes as much as 25% of his pitch-count), and with better location (down) and movement than ever before.  His breaking ball is moving more and his fastball is a couple miles per hour faster than last year, and his control is much improved.  This translates into a drop of over 1 run per nine innings in ERA, dramatically fewer walks and homeruns given up dropping in half over last season. 

Washburn has always been a ‘hard-luck’ pitcher – a guy for which the team scores runs rarely.  Numerous times in his career he has been a league leader in fewest runs scored by his team – last year he was near the bottom all year with the M’s scoring less than 3 runs on average.  He also has routinely lead his team in save opportunities blown – that is to say, when he leaves the game with the lead his bullpen gives up the lead and the game more often for him than any other starter.  In fact, he lead the league last year with 7 blown leads.  He also has a very high number of 1-0 and 2-1 losses last season and this season.  Last year Washburn had the lowest run support in the American League and tied for the highest number of blown saves (7) in the MLB.

Hard luck?  The hardest.  in every way that a guy can get poor support from his teammates, Washburn has been the unhappy recipient of such poor support.  Poor hitting,scoring few runs, the bullpen blowing saves…Washburn has been snake bit in each way by his Mariners teammates. 

So, it was nice today to see the M’s jump all over San Diego pitching for 9 runs, beginning right away with Ichiro’s solo shot to lead off the game, followed by Rob Johnson’s two-out, three-run double scoring Beltre, Sweeney and Gutierrez.  Washburn often doesn’t see the team score 4 runs in a game he starts, let alone the first inning.  And, it doesn’t hurt his feelings to be pitching so well in a contract season, nor does it hurt the M’s feelings to see his value increase as the trade season heats up.

Box score for SD v. M's (June 25) - SD 3, M's 9

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Tracking the Swine Flu

I have to admit that it really frosts me when people are flippant about the possibility of pandemic flu.  As I see it, either we are very fortunate and the concern raised by a new strain is not borne out and the disease does not become deadly, or hundreds of thousands – even millions die. 

I hear people calling ‘hype’ and scoffing all around us.  Why?  Because people just don’t know the pattern that these pandemics follow.  They don’t always become deadly, but there is no way to know in advance which ones will do so.  There is a pattern that they follow, and very often when the strain emerges it is not deadly.  But after the first season, when the virus mutates again, it can then become a killer.  So, we hear people say “It's all hype”, until the secondary mutations happen and the new strain emerges in more virulent form and kill tens of millions.  And then of course, if we don't have stockpiles and research in hand, we will immediately have people claiming that the government's lack of preparation and stockpiling was itself a conspiracy and/or pure negligence.

For at least the past 400 years, epidemics resembling influenza have been recorded.  In  the twentieth century alone, we have seen  the 1918 “Spanish Flu” epidemic (20 million dead),  the 1957 or 1968 influenza outbreaks 1 million dead each, and there have been others –not to mention major epidemics in 1580, 1781, 1831.


Simply put, we hear people scoff and laugh at what they see as hype, but it is only hype until that cycle where the disease happens to become virulent.  Why do people experience fear? Why do the CDC, WHO, etc., raise awareness, and why does the media join in?  Plainly put, if this new strain happens to be (or become over the summer) one that kills half the people who contract it, then it will be the biggest story, the biggest disaster, the most devastating economic blow...well, short of a nuclear event. The health authorities, the media, the planners cannot know immediately what the current form of the H1N1, or the next mutation will do, and simple common sense says 'take precautions until we have information'.   President Ford has been scoffed at and called an idiot because he stockpiled, immunized and alerted the public about a strain that proved not to be deadly.  Had it been as deadly as the 1918 flu Ford might have been called a hero for preparing as best he could. It is not intellectually honest to evaluate someone's actions only by how a factor they cannot know (is this one deadly?) later plays out.

This site is great for tracking the virus.  I hope this latest new virus does not use the summer in animal reserve hosts to mutate yet again, and perhaps to become a deadly pandemic.  If so, the least sad thing about it will be to look back at all the things written and said now about ‘hype’.  The tables will be turned then, and the consequences terrible.  But whether it is this virus, or another in the future, another deadly event is overdue, and very likely it will be greeted by many chanting ‘hype’.

http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

First Washington State Influenza Death

Saturday, May 02, 2009

What a Great Baseball Evening

We had great seats for last night's game with Oakland. It was a sunny and warm evening, an outstanding game with three homeruns, some good defense and pitching and the game was decided with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Felix Hernandez threw the two boys a baseball each, and they had hot dogs, peanuts and a treat, too. This year the Mariners have been really fun to watch and not just because they're winning. They're also moving runners over, playing good defense, and the clubhouse seems to have an energy that's been missing for a few years. Last night I really had the feeling that they expected to win, even when they went down 6-1 early. Though he's started out slow, it is fun to have Ken Griffey Junior back - and he seems to be a big reason the dugout atmosphere has improved so much. There are few more pleasant ways to spend a warm spring evening than soaking in the atmosphere of Safeco Field.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Thought for Today

“We like people for their beauty , but we love them for their flaws.”

                                                                  --anon.

Talk amongst yourselves…

Frankenstein-1.jpg image by pinkflgizzle

Swine Flu Reaches Washington State

State Health Officials announced tonight that six cases believed to be the H1N1 Swine Flu have occurred in Washington.  The cases include three in Seattle, two in Snohomish County and one in Spokane County.  The patients are a boy who attends Madrona Elementary School, 33-year-old Seattle physician, and a man in his mid-twenties, all in Seattle;  a six-year-old boy and a woman in her early forties have been found in Snohomish County. The case in Spokane was identified only as an adult male.

School Districts are monitoring the situation and will send announcements home if any school closures occur. 

The best protective measures for people are to avoid contact with others who have the flu, and to practice good hygiene throughout the day – especially washing the hands often (sanitizers are also effective).  Swine flu is much milder than the avian flu varieties that have produced such concern in recent years.  Swine flu, however, is much easier to catch than avian flu.  It can be spread through coughs, sneezes and even infected surfaces. 

There are two drugs – both antiviral agents – that appear to be effective against swine flu.  The drugs are  Tamiflu and Relenza.  King County currently has 190,000 doses of Tamiflu  which can be used to treat people infected with or exposed to swine flu. The US Department of Health and Human Services is also sending another 260,000 courses of Tamiflu from the federal stockpile, released today.

Some links with good planning information and a more complete summary of tonight’s news conference by Washington State officials:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009148457_webflucases29.html

Planning for Your Family in a Pandemic

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/405705_waswine30.html?source=rss

http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/preparedness/pandemicflu.aspx

You Little…

27K39

WHO Raises Pandemic Flu Alert Level to Phase 5

“GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.”

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE”

Associated Press Breaking News

CDC Swine Flu Press Briefing – April 28, 2009

Some excerpts from today’s CDC swine flu briefing by Dr. Richard Besser of the CDC:

“There are 64 confirmed cases in the United States in five states.  45 in New York, one in Ohio, two in Kansas, six in Texas and ten in California.  What we… have been seeing (in the U.S.)so far, has been milder, has been less severe than what has been reported out of Mexico.  There have now been five hospitalized cases.  The incubation period in the United States appears to be about two to seven days, which is typical for what you see with an influenza virus.”

(http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090428.htm)

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Expedition Grizzly

An interesting show coming up on National Geographic follows a man and his bear friend Brutus on a year-long exploration of Yellowstone Country bears.  Among the many interesting photos and comments on the website, I particularly enjoyed this one from the Q&A Section:

“What have you learned from Grizzly Bears?

Insight from Brutus: If it is physically possible, then it is done. If not, it isn't.
After weighing a boulder in at one ton, we used a tractor to lift it to place a piece of salmon under it. Soon after, Brutus caught the scent of the salmon and walked to the boulder. In one swift move, he pushed the boulder to the side and happily devoured the salmon. Then it dawned on me as I stood next to my friend.  He doesn't worry much; he is not handicapped by his mind. If his body isn't capable of doing it, then that is his only limitation. He does not sit there and contemplate, or make excuses; he just does all he can. Then goes and takes a nap in the sunshine.

How great would it be if we could all live that way?”

The National Geo website is: http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/expedition-grizzly-3909/Overview1#tab-photo-albums

Sunshine on Discovery Bay

Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.