Friday, December 05, 2008
Finally, a completely clear pie chart!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
When Political Ads Infected the Rest
See Not From Concentrate, an online comic I really enjoy, written and illustrated by Thomas Dobrosielski: http://nfccomic.com/
Edible Dirt by Matt Rosemier
This comic series by Matt Rosemier is irreverent and often in poor taste, but I generally find it to be very funny. To view the latest comic: http://eddirt.frozenreality.co.uk/
Monday, November 10, 2008
In Flanders Fields (for Veterans Day)
Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918), Canadian Army
IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
John McCrae, according the website of Arlington National Cemetery,
created "In Flanders Fields" as a lasting legacy of the terrible battle in the Ypres salient in the spring of 1915. Here is the story of the making of that poem:
Although he had been a doctor for years and had served in the South African War, it was impossible to get used to the suffering, the screams, and the blood here, and Major John McCrae had seen and heard enough in his dressing station to last him a lifetime.
As a surgeon attached to the 1st Field Artillery Brigade, Major McCrae, who had joined the McGill faculty in 1900 after graduating from the University of Toronto, had spent seventeen days treating injured men -- Canadians, British, Indians, French, and Germans -- in the Ypres salient.
It had been an ordeal that he had hardly thought possible. McCrae later wrote of it:
"I wish I could embody on paper some of the varied sensations of that seventeen days... Seventeen days of Hades! At the end of the first day if anyone had told us we had to spend seventeen days there, we would have folded our hands and said it could not have been done."
One death particularly affected McCrae. A young friend and former student, Lieut. Alexis Helmer of Ottawa, had been killed by a shell burst on 2 May 1915. Lieutenant Helmer was buried later that day in the little cemetery outside McCrae's dressing station, and McCrae had performed the funeral ceremony in the absence of the chaplain.
The next day, sitting on the back of an ambulance parked near the dressing station beside the Canal de l'Yser, just a few hundred yards north of Ypres, McCrae vented his anguish by composing a poem. The major was no stranger to writing, having authored several medical texts besides dabbling in poetry.
In the nearby cemetery, McCrae could see the wild poppies that sprang up in the ditches in that part of Europe, and he spent twenty minutes of precious rest time scribbling fifteen lines of verse in a notebook.
A young soldier watched him write it. Cyril Allinson, a twenty-two year old sergeant-major, was delivering mail that day when he spotted McCrae. The major looked up as Allinson approached, then went on writing while the sergeant-major stood there quietly. "His face was very tired but calm as we wrote," Allinson recalled. "He looked around from time to time, his eyes straying to Helmer's grave."
When McCrae finished five minutes later, he took his mail from Allinson and, without saying a word, handed his pad to the young NCO. Allinson was moved by what he read:
"The poem was exactly an exact description of the scene in front of us both. He used the word blow in that line because the poppies actually were being blown that morning by a gentle east wind. It never occurred to me at that time that it would ever be published. It seemed to me just an exact description of the scene."
In fact, it was very nearly not published. Dissatisfied with it, McCrae tossed the poem away, but a fellow officer retrieved it and sent it to newspapers in England. The Spectator, in London, rejected it, but Punch published it on 8 December 1915.
Tommy (for Veterans Day)
Rudyard Kipling
I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer,
The publican 'e up an' sez, "We serve no red-coats here."
The girls be'ind the bar they laughed an' giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again an' to myself sez I:
O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, go away";
But it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play,
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
O it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play.
I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls,
But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls!
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, wait outside";
But it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide,
The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide,
O it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide.
Yes, makin' mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep
Is cheaper than them uniforms, an' they're starvation cheap;
An' hustlin' drunken soldiers when they're goin' large a bit
Is five times better business than paradin' in full kit.
Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, 'ow's yer soul?"
But it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll,
The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll,
O it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll.
We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints;
While it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, fall be'ind",
But it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind,
There's trouble in the wind, my boys, there's trouble in the wind,
O it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind.
You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all:
We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational.
Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face
The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace.
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck him out, the brute!"
But it's "Saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot;
An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please;
An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool -- you bet that Tommy sees!
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Buy you a Beer?
According to the Post Crescent in Appleton, Wisconsin, a 38-year-old man was cited for disorderly conduct in Fond du Lac, Wis., in September after he bought a beer for his sons at the county fair. What's the big deal? His sons are ages 2 and 4. Officers could not cite the man for providing alcohol to minors because under Wisconsin law parents are exempt. Fortunately, he was belligerent when speaking to the officers, so he was written up for swearing at police.
The Quality of Life is in the Quality of Living
"Dance like no one is watching. Sing like no one is listening. Love like you've never been hurt and live like it's heaven on Earth."
—Mark TwainSometimes, if you are like me, it takes a simple thought, simply expressed to cut through the sheer speed of living. With so many things to do, and so much information, and so much to buy and operate and watch and read and listen to, it can be pretty easy to be swept up in doing things, owning things and being active. What's wrong with that? Well, nothing in and of itself. We must own some things to live, must we not? We must do some things, and take action. Still, it is all too easy anymore to find ones' life reduced to an endless high-speed string of activities, consumption and belongings. We pursue the 'good life' in the form of these things, and at least some of the time we come unmoored to the simplest truths in life. In having so much, and doing so much, and taking care of the many obligations that come from doing and having so much, we can easily begin to equate these things (consciously or otherwise) with happiness and success in life.
When I see a sentence or two like this quote from Mark Twain, I am reminded that it is not the volume of belongings, or activities, or information that brings me satisfaction. The happiest and most satisfying moments in my life revolve around people - family, friends. They revolve around time - time to interact with them, share and make memories with them. They depend on good health to enjoy, and and opportunity to be together. Often enough, the pace of life actually weakens the experience of family and friends - draws off some of the depth from the interaction. We can become distracted and miss the moments that afford us so much of the satisfaction we find in life. When we are distracted, self conscious, only partially engaged, though we are able to be together, we are not quite together.
When we have the chance - time, health, companions - to really live, it is good advice indeed to value it. And more, to be uninhibited about taking advantage of the moment and living it. No matter how much we have, or how much we do, the quality of our lives derives far more from how we live our moments than where we live them, or what we own.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Scientific American: The Secret to Raising Smart Kids
Hint: Don't tell your kids that they are (smart). More than three decades of research shows that a focus on effort—not on intelligence or ability—is key to success in school and in life.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-secret-to-raising-smart-kids
Monday, November 03, 2008
Good Advice on Tax Policy
"A nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to pull himself up by the handles."
--Winston Churchill
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Sunday Prediction: Fascinating Endgame Looks to Be Drawing to a Close - Basic Blue is IN
Unless some big surprise jumps out at us tomorrow for a late Halloween trick, the polls in the last 36 hours indicate to me that the late surge by Senator McCain likely reached its high water mark on Thursday evening-Friday morning. With a number of polls reporting increasing leads by Obama since Friday, it appears that the election will go to Obama. My best guess at this point is that the lead is somewhere in the five-to-seven point range, and with up to thirty percent of voters already having voted, the lead is effectively a bit larger than that. Absent some real game-changer Sunday night or Monday morning it looks to be an Obama victory waiting to happen. Below are my current best guess estimates for the electoral college - both the most likely outcome as of today's poll data, and the best-case scenario for a McCain upset. You'll note the big change in the best-case scenario for a McCain upset since my last maps were posted. There is now pretty much only one way for him to win, and the results this weekend have him losing ground in several key states. No doubt the Libby Dole debacle wasn't music to McCain's ears - it was drag he didn't need.
McCain Best Case
Likely Outcome as of 11/2/2008
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Obama Appears to be Consolidating the Lead
After seeing a number of polls move closer recently, including the Zogby single-day polling which had McCain actually leading, the single-day and trend polls today look to be telling a different story. For the first time, the Gallup extended and traditional polls are indicating a similar margin - twelve points for Senator Obama. The Gallup traditional was one of the first polls to set tongues wagging when it put Senator McCain within two percent of Obama last week. Rasmussen continues to have Obama over fifty-one percent and today's Zogby poll, which puts Obama up five plus percent, with most of the other polls which reported trends today showing the race at least five percent apart.
We have been speculating a great deal about how the late-breaking independent voters would move. Would they ultimately be comfortable with Senator Obama, or would tax and terror concerns steer them toward the more experienced man? Of course, we still won't know the answer for three or so days, but the sudden widening of the polls which had been showing a McCain surge may in fact be our early warning that independents are indeed choosing Obama. In fact, since the Thursday version of Rasmussen, the Wednesday Gallup traditional and the Friday Zogby single-day and Opinion Dynamics polls were released, each subsequent poll has trended down for McCain. Is November 1 the day the late breakers began to reach their tipping point and found themselves tipping toward Senator Obama? Time will tell, and certainly many of the underlying possibilities discussed over the past few days in this blog are still possible factors. But as of today, I don't see any data that suggests anything other than this: Obama widened his poll lead today. McCain lost ground. His brief foray above 45% - which has been nearly a hard ceiling for him - ended with the Zogby single-day results, and in combination with a gentle uptick by Obama the race seems now to be contested in the 5-10% Obama lead range. That's probably too large a number for McCain to overtake - especially in light of the number of early voters. All of the interesting possibilities and trends below the candidate preference line are really only interesting if the race is at four percent or less. Five at the outside. Upsets have happened even when the leader went into the last weekend with an eight point lead. But an eight-point lead in 1980 probably translates to a four or five point lead today, with instant information, many more polls and as many as a quarter of voters casting early ballots.
We'll see what the numbers look like tomorrow, but if I were an accountant tonight, I'd advise McCain to return some of that Red Bull I suggested last night. Chances are he'll be wanting some warm milk instead. Stay tuned tomorrow to see if we must remake our impressions yet again!
Obama's New Attack on Those Who Don't Want Higher Taxes: ‘Selfishness’
From the ABC News blog:
Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper
October 31, 2008 10:58 AM
On the stump this week, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pushed back against Sen. John McCain's description of his tax policies.
"The reason that we want to do this, change our tax code, is not because I have anything against the rich," Obama said in Sarasota, Fla., yesterday. "I love rich people! I want all of you to be rich. Go for it. That’s the American dream, that’s the American way, that’s terrific.
"The point is, though, that -- and it’s not just charity, it’s not just that I want to help the middle class and working people who are trying to get in the middle class -- it’s that when we actually make sure that everybody’s got a shot – when young people can all go to college, when everybody’s got decent health care, when everybody’s got a little more money at the end of the month – then guess what? Everybody starts spending that money, they decide maybe I can afford a new car, maybe I can afford a computer for my child. They can buy the products and services that businesses are selling and everybody is better off. All boats rise. That’s what happened in the 1990s, that’s what we need to restore. And that’s what I’m gonna do as president of the United States of America.
"John McCain and Sarah Palin they call this socialistic," Obama continued. "You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness."
It's unclear if this was a nod to the Ayn Rand book "The Virtue of Selfishness," with all that the invocation of Rand implies.
It would seem to be, given the themes of Rand's work, what happens when independent achievers are demonized.
Which would fit with this description of those who want to keep their hard-earned tax dollars as "selfish."
Atlas may not be shrugging, but Obama is.
Friday, October 31, 2008
ZOGBY: McCain leads in Single Day Poll 48-47
If you have been watching the polls, there are a group of them that have shown McCain advancing, sometimes within the margin of error. I have postulated that if the trend continued as it had been over the past week we might begin to see McCain leading in some polls by the weekend.
Over the three day period ending on Halloween, the Obama lead is unchanged from our report yesterday. But looking at just the polling responses for one day, today, Senator McCain has actually moved ahead of Senator Obama by one percentage point. This is within the margin of error but is significant nonetheless simply because it shows McCain with a lead. I refer you to Obama's rather terse interaction with reporters today and his exhortations with particular vehemence to campaign workers not to let up at all as telling hints about the impression the polls are giving him.
Earlier today, Dick Morris was heard to say that he doesn't believe there are many undecided voters left at all. Instead, he said, there are a number of voters who are not sold, or perhaps don't like Obama as a candidate, and will end up voting for McCain but simply don't want to tell anyone. If you think about the twenty or so percent of people who might vote for Bush if he were eligible for a third term, how vocal are they about their support? It does seem to have some ring of truth that these are stealth supporters. And in places where supporting McCain is viewed as supporting Bush, I can see some people choosing to 'go with the flow' with pollsters but voting privately as they really feel. Add to that the possibility of some level of Bradley effect - where people don't want to appear racist - and perhaps some of the poll results can be explained. On the other hand, internal numbers show McCain making huge gains with blue collar families, white Catholics and even among the 21-30 age group. Obama's lead has shrunk in half among independents since last week. So, there are many possible causes for the McCain surge in the polls - assuming you're not just reading the New York Times poll and discounting the 90% of polls that show the race getting closer.
The way I see it, the underlying numbers show a close race getting closer. The candidate preference numbers show a close race - whether it is a five point lead for Obama or even a 1 point McCain advantage. The murkiness of several drivers of voter opinion in this particular election make reading the tea leaves more difficult than usual, but there is no doubt in my mind right now that the one thing we can tell from the leaves we see is that the race is very close - closer than many will allow themselves to believe. Close enough that one candidate can't stop mentioning the polls and one can't stop telling supporters that the polls don't matter but work hard and don't let up. For me, this is perhaps the most telling clue to what the polls are really predicting: the way the two candidates are talking about them.
Poll Volatility and Undecided Voters: More Uncommitted Voters than Usual?
Why is there so much disparity between the polls this year? Some have sought to explain it with methodology, and I believe that to be a big part of the reason. What else could be driving as much as ten points difference from one poll to another? There has been some discussion between various pollsters that the financial crisis may have delayed many people in making a firm choice in the race for president. The proportion of undecided voters has remained fairly steady over the past few weeks, yet the numbers for each candidate has moved up and down by fairly large numbers. Some have said that there is a larger pool than normal of voters that are leaning and express a preference, but are not firmly committed to a candidate. In this scenario, perhaps seven or eight percent of voters will reach their conclusion over the weekend and Monday. If this means that as many as six percent will decide over the weekend, and possibly two or three percent of each candidate's supporters may re-evaluate their choice, then the curve of potential outcomes can include a McCain victory as well as a ten point Obama win.
Race Widens in Obama's Favor?
The race for President has been tightening according to several polls including Mason Dixon, IBD, Opinion Dynamics and especially the Gallup Traditional poll. This morning's reports, however, seem to suggest that Senator Barack Obama may be seeing some breathing room opening between himself and Senator McCain. Several of the polls that had the candidates between three and four points have moved to five and six point gaps, with the Gallup Traditional now an eight point lead for Obama. Though the local polls in a number of the most contested states show McCain leading or tied, this new move by Obama may not yet be reflected in them.
Though all of the aspects of the race discussed in previous posts may be factors (and there is no way to know how much of a factor any or all of them may be), the likelihood that any or a combination of them could produce an upset win for McCain will reduce dramatically if the polls widen from four or five percent. This is especially true in terms of early voting, as the nearly thirty percent of voters who will vote prior to November 4 reduce the likelihood of a late change of mind among independents. Below is the trend line from Gallup Traditional.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data
from Trendwatch
By Rick C. Hodgin
Thursday, October 30, 2008 09:55
Boston (MA) - Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature - and not the direct result of man's contributions.
Methane - powerful greenhouse gas
The two lead authors of a paper published in this week's Geophysical Review Letters, Matthew Rigby and Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, state that as a result of the increase, several million tons of new methane is present in the atmosphere.
Methane accounts for roughly one-fifth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, though its effect is 25x greater than that of carbon dioxide. Its impact on global warming comes from the reflection of the sun's light back to the Earth (like a greenhouse). Methane is typically broken down in the atmosphere by the free radical hydroxyl (OH), a naturally occuring process. This atmospheric cleanser has been shown to adjust itself up and down periodically, and is believed to account for the lack of increases in methane levels in Earth's atmosphere over the past ten years despite notable simultaneous increases by man. Continue reading article here
Sunshine on Discovery Bay
As always, the photos we use are either my own, or in the public domain. Please let me know if there are any errors and I'll correct them immediately.